A family of learning models that integrates a cognitive diagnostic model and a higher-order, hidden Markov model in one framework is proposed. This new framework includes covariates to model skill transition in the learning environment. A Bayesian formulation is adopted to estimate parameters from a learning model. The developed methods are…

Syntactic structures are unobserved theoretical constructs which are useful in explaining a wide range of linguistic and psychological phenomena. Language acquisition studies how such latent structures are acquired by human learners through many hypothesized learning mechanisms and apparatuses, which can be genetically endowed or of general…

We propose a novel tensor factorization approach, Feedback-Driven Tensor Factorization (FDTF), for modeling student learning process and predicting student performance. This approach decomposes a tensor that is built upon students' attempt sequence, while considering the quizzes students select to work with as its feedback. FDTF does not require…

When a new student comes to play an educational game, how can we determine what content to give them such that they learn as much as possible? When a frustrated customer calls in to a helpline, how can we determine what to say to best assist them? When an ill patient comes in to the clinic, how do we determine what tests to run and treatments to…

Drawing valid inferences from item response theory (IRT) models is contingent upon a good fit of the data to the model. Violations of model-data fit have numerous consequences, limiting the usefulness and applicability of the model. This instructional module provides an overview of methods used for evaluating the fit of IRT models. Upon completing…

Intelligent behavior of adaptive educational systems is based on student models. Most research in student modeling focuses on student learning (acquisition of skills). We focus on prior knowledge, which gets much less attention in modeling and yet can be highly varied and have important consequences for the use of educational systems. We describe…

Representations of numerical value have been assessed by using bounded (e.g., 0-1,000) and unbounded (e.g., 0-?) number-line tasks, with considerable debate regarding whether 1 or both tasks elicit unique cognitive strategies (e.g., addition or subtraction) and require unique cognitive models. To test this, we examined how well a mixed log-linear…

This study compares the performance of two estimation algorithms of new usage, the Metropolis-Hastings Robins-Monro (MHRM) and the Hamiltonian MCMC (HMC), with two consolidated algorithms in the psychometric literature, the marginal likelihood via EM algorithm (MML-EM) and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), in the estimation of multidimensional…

This article proposes a coherent framework for the use of Inverse Bayesian estimation to summarize and make predictions about student behaviour in adaptive educational settings. The Inverse Bayes Filter utilizes Bayes theorem to estimate the relative impact of contextual factors and internal student factors on student performance using time series…

Lord's Wald test for differential item functioning (DIF) has not been studied extensively in the context of the multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) framework. In this article, Lord's Wald test was implemented using two estimation approaches, marginal maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation, to detect…

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a commonly used approach for student modeling, and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is a versatile model that can be applied to a wide range of tasks, such as language translation. In this work, we directly compared three models: BKT, its variant Intervention-BKT (IBKT), and LSTM, on two types of student modeling…

In 1881, Donald MacAlister posed a problem in the "Educational Times" that remains relevant today. The problem centers on the statistical evidence for the effectiveness of a treatment based on a comparison between two proportions. A brief historical sketch is followed by a discussion of two default Bayesian solutions, one based on a…

The future of education is human expertise and artificial intelligence working in conjunction, a revolution that will change the education as we know it. The Intelligent Tutoring System is a key component of this future. A quantitative measurement of efficacies of practice to heterogeneous learners is the cornerstone of building an effective…

Early prediction of student difficulty during long-duration learning activities allows a tutoring system to intervene by providing needed support, such as a hint, or by alerting an instructor. To be effective, these predictions must come early and be highly accurate, but such predictions are difficult for open-ended programming problems. In this…

Memory for spatial location is typically biased, with errors trending toward the center of a surrounding region. According to the category adjustment model (CAM), this bias reflects the optimal, Bayesian combination of fine-grained and categorical representations of a location. However, there is disagreement about whether categories are malleable.…