Gonzalez and Dutt (2011) recently reported that trends during sampling, prior to a consequential risky decision, reveal a gradual movement from exploration to exploitation. That is, even when search imposes no immediate costs, people adopt the same pattern manifest in costly search: early exploration followed by later exploitation. From this…

A robust finding in social psychology is that people judge negative events as less likely to happen to themselves than to the average person, a behavior interpreted as showing that people are "unrealistically optimistic" in their judgments of risk concerning future life events. However, we demonstrate how unbiased responses can result in data…