Agent-based models combine data and theory during both development and use of the model. As models have become increasingly data driven, it is easy to start thinking of agent-based modelling as an empirical method, akin to statistical modelling, and reduce the role of theory. We argue that both types of information are important where the past is…

Many early care and education (ECE) institutions--including Head Start, state quality rating and improvement systems (QRIS), and school district pre-K programs--use classroom quality observations in their quality improvement or monitoring processes. As many states expand their ECE programs, they grapple with questions about how best to use data…

Affective commitment remains an essential factor in key outcomes such as work performance and productivity, and has been shown to have the strongest positive relation with positive work behaviours when compared with normative commitment and continuance commitment. Using a sample of 164 academic employees at the University of Botswana, this study…

Contemporary education policy involves the integration of novel forms of data and the creation of new data platforms, in addition to the infusion of business principles into school governance networks, and intensification of socio-technical relations. In this paper, we examine how "computational rationality" may be understood as…

Little information is available about autism spectrum disorder services in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. A sample of 205 parents completed an online survey about the use of autism spectrum disorder services for their children. The results revealed that on average, children began services by 3.3 years. Most parents reported utilizing non-medical…

This article examines states' decisions to commit to human rights treaties. It argues that the effect of a treaty on a state--and hence the state's willingness to commit to it--is largely determined by the domestic enforcement of the treaty and the treaty's collateral consequences. These broad claims give rise to several specific predictions. For…

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The paper presents a review of literature on warnings of social crises and applies the literature to selected crises predicted in America's future. It is intended for use by futurists and policy makers as they devise ways to help society cope with crises. Warnings are interpreted as combining statement of a problem with proposal of a course of…

This technological assessment, conducted by the Arthur D. Little organization, studied the technology of electronic funds transfer. Technology assessment analyzes the economic, social, environmental, and institutional consequences of the introduction or expansion of a technology into society and alerts decision makers to the possible future…

This paper explains some of the problems with, and their importance to the application of, the Cross-Impact Matrix (CIM). The CIM is a research method designed to serve as a heuristic device to enhance a person's ability to think about the future and as an analytical device to be used by planners to help in actually forecasting future occurrences.…

One role for institutional research within the university's budget is to provide objective data and informed judgements to help the responsible decisionmaking of the university organization. This report attempts to fulfill this function in organizational intelligence. In the university, as in all responsibly operated enterprises, projections of…

This bibliography presents a list of resources relating to the Delphi approach and its application in many different arenas. Books, papers, and journal articles in periodicals are included in the listing, which covers the years 1963-1996. (EH)

Prediction is made of a change in the role of the teacher from dispenser of knowledge to a learning facilitator and an "anticipatory design science" specialist. A description is given of a workshop seminar focusing on the process of designing educational futures so that teachers can gain direct experience with policy study and formation. This…

This bibliography surveys the literature in the developing field of forecasting, which incorporates policy-formation, planning, decision-making, and the policy sciences in general. Entries are organized into five separate sections. The first section, Alternative Futures, surveys the general literature on the future, including many historical…

An approach to environmental analysis and forecasting that educational policymakers can employ in dealing with the level of uncertainty in strategic decision making is presented. Traditional planning models are weak in identifying environmental changes and assessing their organizational impact. The proposed approach does not lead decision makers…