Enrollment projections for Howard Community College (HCC) are made using an age cohort model that assumes that HCC will continue to enroll the same proportion of students in each age group as are represented in the current student population. Projections are made by calculating the ratio of HCC students in each age group to the number of county…

Describes Albuquerque (New Mexico) Public Schools' development of a model to forecast enrollment growth. Recommendations include studying local demographics, seeking clues to future development, examining the age of neighborhoods, adding up rental property, and developing strong professional relationships with city planners, real estate…

This paper examines the decline in Illinois public school enrollment that began in 1971-72 and attempts to predict the likely duration and severity of the decline. Much of the paper discusses the use of two different models for calculating enrollment projections from 1974 through 1985. The grade-by-grade model formulates enrollment projections…

Traditionally, the most commonly used methods of forecasting school enrollments have been those that looked to the past for a picture of the future. In restricting the forecaster to projections of past trends, the "percentage survival" technique ignores a host of current trends implicit in a changing society. A second problem with most…

This paper reports work that studied past and future demographic trends and their impact on education in Florida, and presents a model for studying variables affecting enrollment. Numerous tables and graphs are included. (Author/IRT)

The projection of enrollment changes is vital to the planning of educational facilities. However, existing methods of projecting urban populations fall short of acceptable performance because they fail to adequately take into account residential mobility. As a starting point for improving these methods, this report develops an accounting model of…

An analysis of Great Britain's higher education system, primarily between 1981 and 1994, considers the possible implication of demographic trends and how that pattern may change over the next 15 years. The purpose of the paper is to direct public attention to the issues and encourage debate rather than present discrete policy options. Planning…

This paper provides an overview of selected simulation models pertinent to the problems of educational facility planning. Emphasis is placed on computer simulation models partly because of the greater potential utility of computer simulation models in coming to grips with facility planning problems. The overall objective is to document the…

Current college enrollments in Ontario universities and future projections are considered. It is suggested that demographic changes and educational demand are basic factors affecting university enrollment. Difficulties in analyzing participation rates are identified, including the means of calculation, interprovincial student mobility, the…

Demographic factors that will determine enrollment potential and service needs for California's segments of postsecondary education over the next 15 years are examined. Attention is directed to total population, age distribution, race composition, geographic distribution, and socioeconomic status. To provide some indication of changes that might…

Nine models developed principally for use at the central level of the Bureau of Indian Affairs in evaluating the costs and cost-effectiveness of alternative policies and programs are described in this document. The 9 models are: (1) Population Projection Model, (2) Enrollment Projection Model, (3) Facilities Planning Model, (4) Economic Projection…

This paper examines the changing demographics of American society and the impact of these changes on higher education. Discussions include a historical background of early American demography, the building and expansion of the population base, and census changes through various generations of the baby boom years and beyond. Next, the report…

A highly technical report describes higher education forecasting procedures used by the State Education Department of New York at Albany to project simulated college enrollments for New York State from 1978-1994. Basic components of the projections--generated for full- and part-time undergraduates, full- and part-time graduates, and…

Enrollments in California's community colleges are expected to increase by 500,000 students by the year 2005 with the student body demographics expected to shift towards higher percentages of minorities and women. To address this issue, the Chancellor's Office staff are examining enrollment projections under varying assumptions about future…

Enrollments in California's community colleges are expected to increase by 500,000 students by the year 2005 with the student body demographics expected to shift towards higher percentages of minorities and women. To address this issue, the Chancellor's Office staff are examining enrollment projections under varying assumptions about future…