Predictability of behavior is an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, marketing, and education. When a sequence of actions performed by an individual can be modeled as a stationary time-homogeneous Markov chain the predictability of the individual's behavior can be quantified by the entropy rate of the process. This…

In this paper, we investigate two purported problems with Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT), a popular statistical model of student learning: "identifiability" and "semantic model degeneracy." In 2007, Beck and Chang stated that BKT is susceptible to an "identifiability problem"--various models with different…

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) have demonstrated growing popularity and rapid development in recent years. Discussion forums have become crucial components for students and instructors to widely exchange ideas and propagate knowledge. It is important to recommend helpful information from forums to students for the benefit of the learning…

Learning the structure of event sequences is a ubiquitous problem in cognition and particularly in language. One possible solution is to learn a probabilistic generative model of sequences that allows making predictions about upcoming events. Though appealing from a neurobiological standpoint, this approach is typically not pursued in…

This work describes a unified approach to two problems previously addressed separately in Intelligent Tutoring Systems: (i) Cognitive Modeling, which factorizes problem solving steps into the latent set of skills required to perform them; and (ii) Student Modeling, which infers students' learning by observing student performance. The practical…