We consider two-level models where a continuous response R and continuous covariates C are assumed missing at random. Inferences based on maximum likelihood or Bayes are routinely made by estimating their joint normal distribution from observed data R[subscript obs] and C[subscript obs]. However, if the model for R given C includes random…

During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…

This paper introduces a dataset and associated analysis of the scores of National Football League (NFL) games over the 2012, 2013, and first five weeks of the 2014 season. In the face of current media attention to "lopsided" scores in Thursday night games in the early part of the 2014 season, t-test results indicate no statistically…

The current Situational Space Awareness (SSA) is faced with a huge task of tracking the increasing number of space objects. The tracking of space objects requires frequent and accurate monitoring for orbit maintenance and collision avoidance using methods for statistical orbit determination. Statistical orbit determination enables us to obtain…

Person-fit assessment may help the researcher to obtain additional information regarding the answering behavior of persons. Although several researchers examined person fit, there is a lack of research on person-fit assessment for mixed-format tests. In this article, the lz statistic and the ?2 statistic, both of which have been used for tests…

The study of prediction bias is important and the last five decades include research studies that examined whether test scores differentially predict academic or employment performance. Previous studies used ordinary least squares (OLS) to assess whether groups differ in intercepts and slopes. This study shows that OLS yields inaccurate inferences…

When a simple random sample of size n is employed to establish a classification rule for prediction of a polytomous variable by an independent variable, the best achievable rate of misclassification is higher than the corresponding best achievable rate if the conditional probability distribution is known for the predicted variable given the…

A latent trait model, the Rasch, was fitted to a criterion-referenced test. Approximately 90 percent of the items fit the model. Those items which fit the model were then calibrated. Based on the item calibration, individual ability estimates and the standard errors of those estimates were calculated. Using the ability estimates, it was possible,…