During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…

With the expeditious advancement of information technologies, health-related data presented unprecedented potentials for medical and health discoveries but at the same time significant challenges for machine learning techniques both in terms of size and complexity. Those challenges include: the structured data with various storage formats and…

In recent years, the usefulness of affect detection for educational software has become clear. Accurate detection of student affect can support a wide range of interventions with the potential to improve student affect, increase engagement, and improve learning. In addition, accurate detection of student affect could play an essential role in…

This work describes a unified approach to two problems previously addressed separately in Intelligent Tutoring Systems: (i) Cognitive Modeling, which factorizes problem solving steps into the latent set of skills required to perform them; and (ii) Student Modeling, which infers students' learning by observing student performance. The practical…

A central puzzle for theories of choice is that people's preferences between options can be reversed by the presence of decoy options (that are not chosen) or by the presence of other irrelevant options added to the choice set. Three types of reversal effect reported in the decision-making literature, the attraction, compromise, and similarity…

A new process model of the interplay between memory and judgment processes was recently suggested, assuming that retrieval fluency--that is, the speed with which objects are recognized--will determine inferences concerning such objects in a single-cue fashion. This aspect of the fluency heuristic, an extension of the recognition heuristic, has…

In exemplar models of phonology, phonotactic constraints are modeled as emergent from patterns of high activation between units that co-occur with statistical regularity, or as patterns of low activation or inhibition between units that co-occur less frequently or not at all. Exemplar models posit no a "priori" formal or representational…

RTI as a framework for decision making has implications for the diagnosis of specific learning disabilities. Any diagnostic tool must meet certain standards to demonstrate that its use leads to predictable decisions with minimal risk. Classification agreement analyses are described as optimal for demonstrating the technical adequacy of RTI…

This paper evaluates two classes of hypotheses about how people prosodically segment utterances: (1) meaning-based proposals, with a focus on Watson and Gibson's (2004) proposal, according to which speakers tend to produce boundaries before and after long constituents; and (2) balancing proposals, according to which speakers tend to produce…

Describes a new method of evaluating multiple choice examinations by measuring the entropy state of a student's examination above the "thermal background level," and shows that the entropy grade contains standard scoring as a special case. (Author/GA)

The CODE Theory of Visual Attention (CTVA) is a mathematical model explaining the effects of grouping by proximity and distance upon reaction times and accuracy of response with regard to elements in the visual display. The predictions of the theory agree quite acceptably in one and two dimensions (CTVA-2D) with the experimental results (reaction…

In this paper, we explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical prediction. (Author)

Addressed to both librarians and systems analysts, this book attempts to apply the analytic methods of operations research and systems analysis to the operating problems of the library. The first part of the book discusses theoretical models with emphasis on the pattern of book use, on its change with time and on the problem of estimating and…