This work asks one simple question: "how reliable is the method used by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) to estimate projected rates of VET program completion?" In other words, how well do early projections align with actual completion rates some years later? Completion rates are simple to calculate with a…

Body composition measurements vary greatly in degree of measurement difficulty and accuracy. Hydrostatic weighing, chemical dilution or their equivalents were the accepted "gold" standards for assessing fat mass. Dual Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) is fast replacing these techniques as the preferred standard. However, these direct measurement…

The prediction of academic achievement within a single university was improved by adjusting predictions on the basis of a multiplicative weight which measures the relative mean success of former graduates from each of the various feeder high schools. (Authors)

In a training situation, the standard procedures for predicting performance entail long delays between the request for a predictive instrument and its delivery. Methods were developed for constructing psychological prediction instruments at the time of the request, rather than waiting for the maturation of the criterion data. The two synthetic…

The purpose of the present study was to determine choral students' ability to predict and evaluate their sight-singing skills. Participants were asked to assign a rating based on how well they predicted they would sight-sing five musical examples. Following the singing of each example, participants were asked to evaluate their sight-singing…

A tailored testing model employing the beta distribution, whose mean equals the difficulty of an item and whose variance is approximately equal to the sampling variance of the item difficulty, and employing conditional item difficulties, is proposed. (Author)

A survey of grade 12 students in Ontario, conducted in spring 1973, sought to identify what factors influence an adolescent's future educational and vocational plans. A followup telephone survey of the same grade 12 students was conducted in November 1973 to evaluate the predictive utility of an "intentions" survey. The objectives of…

A procedure for predicting categorical outcomes using categorical predictor variables was described by Moonan. This paper describes a related technique which uses prior probabilities, updated by joint likelihoods, as classification criteria. The procedure differs from Moonan's in that the outcome having the greatest posterior probability is…

The suppressor variable, a variable wholly uncorrelated with a criterion, but which nevertheless improves prediction because of its relationship with a predictor, is critically examined. For a suppressor so defined, formal identities are shown with part, partial, and multiple correlational procedures. It is demonstrated that if maximum prediction…

This study evaluates the validity of two aggression scales for predicting observations of malicious or disruptive behavior at school. Subgroups of a sample of 1,560 children (age 8.6 plus or minus 1.5 years) were assessed using (a) peer nominations of aggression, (b) teacher reports on the Teacher Report Form (TRF) of the Child Behavior Checklist…

Price indices related to specific expenditure categories are necessary for realistic budget projections in higher education. Given the erratic inflationary behavior of the past seven years, and the uniqueness of higher education expenditures, realistic inflation prediction requires a balanced combination of analytic forecasting and intuitive…

A test was developed to predict job satisfaction on the basis of psychological needs satisfaction. A short questionnaire consisting of six multiple choice questions was designed to measure (1) expressed degree of need satisfaction among 14 pre-selected psychological needs (job security, outdoor work, good pay, competition, esteem, leadership,…

The great growth in college enrollments, the changes in the availability of positions for college graduates, and the development in the science of testing go hand-in-hand in making the problem of the prediction of college success of greater importance than ever before. This bulletin brings the attention of educators upon the work which has been …