To provide intelligent learning guidance for students in e-learning systems, it is necessary to accurately predict their performance in future exams by analyzing score data in past exams. However, existing research has not addressed the uncertain and dynamic features of students' cognitive status, whereas these features are essential for improving…

Assessing students' conceptions related to independence of events and determining probabilities from a sample space has been the focus of research in probability education for over 40 years. While we know a lot from past studies about predictable ways students may reason with well-known tasks, developing a diagnostic assessment that can be used by…

Tossing a fair coin 1000 times can have an unexpected result. In the activities presented here, players keep track of the accumulated total for heads and tails after each toss, noting which player is in the lead or whether the players are tied. The winner is the player who was in the lead for the higher number of turns over the course of the game.…

Bowers and Davis (2012) criticize Bayesian modelers for telling "just so" stories about cognition and neuroscience. Their criticisms are weakened by not giving an accurate characterization of the motivation behind Bayesian modeling or the ways in which Bayesian models are used and by not evaluating this theoretical framework against specific…

We (Hahn & Warren, 2009) recently proposed a new account of the systematic errors and biases that appear to be present in people's perception of randomly generated events. In a comment on that article, Sun, Tweney, and Wang (2010) critiqued our treatment of the gambler's fallacy. We had argued that this fallacy was less gross an error than it…

Leveraging the knowledge of an organization is an ongoing challenge that has given rise to the field of knowledge management. Yet, despite spending enormous sums of organizational resources on Information Technology (IT) systems, executives recognize there is much more knowledge to harvest. Prediction markets are emerging as one tool to help…