In the last years special "ovals" appear increasingly often in diagrams and applets for discussing crucial items of statistical inference (when dealing with confidence intervals for an unknown probability p; approximation of the binomial distribution by the normal distribution; especially in German literature, see e.g. [Meyer,…

The ability to predict upcoming events is essential in infancy because it enables babies to process information optimally and have successful goal-directed interactions with their environment. In this article, we examine how infants generate predictions in perception, cognition, and action, and address whether and how their predictions are…

Since 2018, institutions of higher education have been aware of the "enrollment cliff" which refers to expected declines in future enrollment. This paper attempts to describe how prepared institutions in Ohio are for this future by looking at trends leading up to the anticipated decline. Using IPEDS data from 2012-2022, we analyze trends…

Most existing solutions to the current replication crisis in science address only the factors stemming from specific poor research practices. We introduce a novel mechanism that leverages the experts' predictive abilities to analyze the root causes of replication failures. It is backed by the principle that the most accurate predictor is the most…

This paper aims to showcase the value of implementing a Bayesian framework to analyze and report results from international large-scale assessments and provide guidance to users who want to analyse ILSA data using this approach. The motivation for this paper stems from the recognition that Bayesian statistical inference is fast becoming a popular…

Foundations of statistics research aims to establish fundamental principles guiding inference about populations under uncertainty. It is concerned with the process of learning from observations, notions of uncertainty and induction, and satisfying inferential objectives. The growing interest in predictive methods in high-stakes fields like…

Knowledge tracing (KT) for evaluating students' knowledge is an essential task in personalized education. More and more researchers have devoted themselves to solving KT tasks, e.g., deep knowledge tracing (DKT), which can capture more sophisticated representations of student knowledge. Nonetheless, these techniques ignore the reconstruction of…

When a situation could lead to multiple mutually exclusive consequences, recent research shows that people automatically generate multiple predictive inferences in memory. Several theoretical mechanisms have been proposed to account for the generation of predictive inferences. One hypothesis is that inferences are minimally encoded, represented…

Given the rapid adoption of machine learning methods by education researchers, and the growing acknowledgment of their inherent risks, there is an urgent need for tailored methodological guidance on how to improve and evaluate the validity of inferences drawn from these methods. Drawing on an integrative literature review and extending a…

For randomized trials that use text as an outcome, traditional approaches for assessing treatment impact require that each document first be manually coded for constructs of interest by trained human raters. This process, the current standard, is both time-consuming and limiting: even the largest human coding efforts are typically constrained to…

The purpose of this dissertation is to develop principles and strategies for and identify limitations of multisite cluster randomized trials in the context of partially and fully nested designs. In the first study, I develop principles of estimation, sampling variability, and inference for studies that leverage multisite designs within the context…

The present work focuses on the performance of two types of shrinkage priors--the horseshoe prior and the recently developed regularized horseshoe prior--in the context of inducing sparsity in path analysis and growth curve models. Prior research has shown that these horseshoe priors induce sparsity by at least as much as the "gold…

An extraordinary amount of data is becoming available in educational settings, collected from a wide range of Educational Technology tools and services. This creates opportunities for using methods from Artificial Intelligence and Learning Analytics (LA) to improve learning and the environments in which it occurs. And yet, analytics results…

Purpose: This study examines online speech processing in typically developing and late-talking 2-year-old children, comparing both groups' word recognition, word prediction, and word learning. Method: English-acquiring U.S. children, from the "When to Worry" study of language and social--emotional development, were identified as typical…

This software review discusses the capabilities of Stata to conduct item response theory modeling. The commands needed for fitting the popular one-, two-, and three-parameter logistic models are initially discussed. The procedure for testing the discrimination parameter equality in the one-parameter model is then outlined. The commands for fitting…