Research has often found that, when high school grades and SAT scores are used to predict first-year college grade-point average (FGPA) via regression analysis, African-American and Latino students, are, on average, predicted to earn higher FGPAs than they actually do. Under various plausible models, this phenomenon can be explained in terms of…

The common approach to studies of predictive bias is analyzed within the context of a conceptual model in which predictors and criterion measures are viewed as fallible indicators of idealized qualifications. (Author/PN)

Nine methods of smoothing double-entry expectancy tables (tables that relate two predictor variables to probability of attaining success on a criterion) were compared using data for entering students at 85 colleges and universities. The smoothed tables were more accurate than those based on observed relative frequencies. (Author/CTM)

Support for the validity of the equipercentile assumption is presented in contrast with the conclusion of Powers, Slaughter, and Helmick (EJ 289 091). Observed "gains" from pre- to posttests are better attributed to stakeholder bias, posttests that match curriculum content too closely, or a combination of these factors. (Author/DWH)

Results indicate that a common prediction system is not practical and that a separate prediction system should be developed for each subgroup. (AG)

Differential prediction of two-year grade point average is reported for gender groups within university programs of study. Johnson-Neyman analyses indicated regions on the predictor score scales where differential prediction has practical impact for a significant portion of students. Careful selection of a subset of variables can reduce…