Research has often found that, when high school grades and SAT scores are used to predict first-year college grade-point average (FGPA) via regression analysis, African-American and Latino students, are, on average, predicted to earn higher FGPAs than they actually do. Under various plausible models, this phenomenon can be explained in terms of…

The common approach to studies of predictive bias is analyzed within the context of a conceptual model in which predictors and criterion measures are viewed as fallible indicators of idealized qualifications. (Author/PN)

The gains in accuracy resulting from applying any of the smoothing methods appear sufficient to justify the suggestion that all expectancy tables used by colleges for admission, guidance, or planning purposes should be smoothed. These methods on the average, reduce the criterion measure (an index of inaccuracy) by 30 percent. (Author/MV)

Differential prediction of two-year grade point average is reported for gender groups within university programs of study. Johnson-Neyman analyses indicated regions on the predictor score scales where differential prediction has practical impact for a significant portion of students. Careful selection of a subset of variables can reduce…

Whether college grades are gender-related to traditional predictors of aptitude test scores and high-school grades was studied. Fall and spring (1985-86) enrollments in 88 introductory university courses (IUCs) were analyzed. In most of the large IUCs, no gender bias held up on cross-validation in a subsequent semester. (TJH)

This study of test bias used Black, Oriental, Chicano, and White students to answer two questions: (1) Is grade point average prediction for Chicanos and Orientals similar to prediction for Blacks and Whites? and (2) Does major field mediate ethnic differences in test performance? (Author/BW)