In 1974, the National Football League (NFL) initiated a sudden death overtime rule for games ending in a tie score at the end of regulation time. The rule states that the sudden death system of determining the winner shall prevail when the score is tied at the end of the regulation playing time of all NFL games. The team scoring first during…

The relationship between quantitative predictor variables and the probability of occurrence of one or more levels of a qualitative criterion variable can be analyzed by quantal response techniques. This paper presents and discusses two quantal response models, comparing them to multiple linear regression and discriminant analysis. (Author/JKS)

Discusses the interdependencies between parameter estimation and properties of probabilistic models, such as dependency assumptions, binary vs. nonbinary features, and estimation sample selection. An optimum estimation for binary features applicable to information retrieval is defined, a method for computing this estimation using empirical data is…

The logit methodology provides a unique way of examining input-output relationships for social systems where the principal output of the analysis is a probability of some action or state. (Author)

Researchers should investigate statistical models that can help counselors decide how to treat individual clients. This research investigated the questions, "Given an effect size (ES) from a counseling outcome study, what is the probability that a client would have a negative response to the treatment, and what is the probability that the client…

Differences in the value of unemployment insurance benefits alter the extent of job search activities by current recipients, according to this study, but differences in expected value of future unemployment benefits do not appear to affect the search process of those not currently eligible for payments. (MF)

Analyzes a sample of over 4,700 orders for library materials at the University of California, Berkeley, in terms of the probability that the material will arrive and the factors that determine arrival. Models to evaluate the book ordering process are presented, and variables that may affect arrival time are discussed. (six references) (Author/LRW)

Cox (1972) proposed a discrete-time survival model that is somewhat analogous to the proportional hazards model for continuous time. Efron (1988) showed that this model can be estimated using ordinary logistic regression software, and Singer and Willett (1993) provided a detailed illustration of a particularly flexible form of the model that…

A mathematical model for computer-aided instruction has been developed. The assumption is made that the course is divided into a hierarchy of levels of difficulty and that if a student is able to perform successfully at a given level of difficulty, he can also perform successfully at all levels of lesser difficulty. Furthermore, if a student…

An analytical framework is described through which voluntary attrition can be predicted. The approach incorporates Marshallian Utility Theory and a Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure to evaluate a specific individual's propensity to attrit. The approach was tested twice at the United States Air Force Academy where it was able to correctly…

In evaluation research studies, it often occurs that several program participants (experimentals) drop out of the program prior to completion. Since noncompleters generally differ substantially from completers in many respects, a control group which originally was representative of the participant group will most likely not be representative of…

Uses the various strategies involved in baseball to illustrate basic concepts in game theory. Specifically discusses Willie Mays' base-stealing strategy and how it relates to probability and risk. Reminds students that expected results depend on adopted assumptions. (MJP)

Expectancy theory and decision theory research predicting occupational preference and choice were reviewed to assess the usefulness of such approaches. Each investigation produced substantial support for the use of such models suggesting that both theories can provide practical insights for occupational guidance and counseling. While theoretical,…

The IADIS CELDA 2012 Conference intention was to address the main issues concerned with evolving learning processes and supporting pedagogies and applications in the digital age. There had been advances in both cognitive psychology and computing that have affected the educational arena. The convergence of these two disciplines is increasing at a…