A number of memorable tasks have been revealed through collegial exchanges with underlying philosophical, theoretical, and potentially nefarious motivations. Such was the origin of the probability problem, and the various differences of opinion, presented herein. This article recounts how, together, we explored and disputed the probabilities…

Constantly on the lookout for and with a vested interest in Canadian mathematics education matters, because if Canadian mathematics education matters then Canadian mathematics education matters, this article is an investigation into the Canadian lottery landscape. With apologies to the Atlantic Lottery, Loto-Québec and Ontario Lottery and Gaming,…

By focusing on a particular alteration of the comparative likelihood task, this study contributes to research on teachers' understanding of probability. Our novel task presented prospective teachers with multinomial, contextualized sequences and asked them to identify which was least likely. Results demonstrate that determinants of…

The objective of this article is to contribute to research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge and reasoning. To meet this objective, prospective mathematics teachers were presented coin flip sequences and were asked to determine and explain which of the sequences was least likely to occur. This research suggests that certain individuals, when…

The objective of this article is to contribute to the documented dearth of research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge. Prospective teachers of elementary school mathematics were asked to identify which result from five flips of a fair coin was least likely to occur. Participants, instead of being presented with sequences, were presented with…

The purpose of this article is to address the lack of research on teachers' knowledge of probability. As has been the case in prior research, we asked prospective mathematics teachers to determine which of the presented sequences of coin flips was least likely to occur. However, instead of using the traditional perspectives of heuristic and…

This article is a systematic reflection on a sequence of episodes related to teaching probability. Our central claim is that reducing problems to a consideration of the sample space, which consists of equiprobable outcomes, may not be in accord with learners' initial ways of reasoning. We suggest a "desirable pedagogical approach" in which the…

Within the limited field of research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge, incorrect, inconsistent and even inexplicable responses to probabilistic tasks are most often accounted for by utilizing theories, frameworks and models, which are based upon heuristic and informal reasoning. More recently, the emergence of new research based upon informal…

In this article, the authors discuss how acknowledging and embracing that the sample space is one of many ways to partition the set of all possible outcomes impacts the teaching and learning of sample space and probability. After recounting an exchange surrounding two viable answers to a probability question, the authors detail how developments…

The main objective of this article is to contribute to the limited research on teachers' knowledge of probability. In order to meet this objective, we presented prospective mathematics teachers with a variation of a well known task and asked them to determine which of five possible coin flip sequences was least likely to occur. To analyze…

In this study subjects are presented with sequences of heads and tails, derived from flipping a fair coin, and asked to consider their chances of occurrence. In this new iteration of the comparative likelihood task, the ratio of heads to tails in all of the sequences is maintained. In order to help situate participants' responses within…