This study shows that residual variation can cause problems related to scaling in exponential random graph models (ERGM). Residual variation is likely to exist when there are unmeasured variables in a model--even those uncorrelated with other predictors--or when the logistic form of the model is inappropriate. As a consequence, coefficients cannot…

Informally testing the fit of a probability distribution model is educationally a desirable precursor to formal methods for senior secondary school students. Limited research on how to teach such an informal approach, lack of statistically sound criteria to enable drawing of conclusions, as well as New Zealand assessment requirements led to this…

The COVID-19 pandemic generated a new scenario in education, where technological resources mediate teaching and learning processes. This paper presents the development of a virtual teacher training experience aimed at promoting inferential reasoning in practicing and prospective mathematics teachers using inference problems on the Chi-square…

Drawing inference from data is an important skill for students to understand their everyday life, so that the sampling distribution as a central topic in statistical inference is necessary to be learned by the students. However, little is known about how to teach the topic for high school students, especially in Indonesian context. Therefore, the…

When competence tests are administered, subjects frequently omit items. These missing responses pose a threat to correctly estimating the proficiency level. Newer model-based approaches aim to take nonignorable missing data processes into account by incorporating a latent missing propensity into the measurement model. Two assumptions are typically…

In the criminal justice system, defendants accused of a crime are presumed innocent until proven guilty. Statistical inference in any context is built on an analogous principle: The null hypothesis--often a hypothesis of "no difference" or "no effect"--is presumed true unless there is sufficient evidence against it. In this…

Propensity score estimation plays a fundamental role in propensity score matching for reducing group selection bias in observational data. To increase the accuracy of propensity score estimation, the author developed a bootstrap propensity score. The commonly used propensity score matching methods: nearest neighbor matching, caliper matching, and…

This paper identifies key concepts and issues associated with the reasoning of informal statistical inference. I focus on key ideas of inference that I think all students should learn, including at secondary level as well as tertiary. I argue that a fundamental component of inference is to go beyond the data at hand, and I propose that statistical…

Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for…