Multiple choice results are inherently probabilistic outcomes, as correct responses reflect a combination of knowledge and guessing, while incorrect responses additionally reflect blunder, a confidently committed mistake. To objectively resolve knowledge from responses in an MC test structure, we evaluated probabilistic models that explicitly…

One of the major debates concerning the nature of inferential reasoning is between counterexample-based theories such as mental model theory and probabilistic theories. This study looks at conclusion updating after the addition of statistical information to examine the hypothesis that deductive reasoning cannot be explained by probabilistic…

In this study, we explored the influence of kindergarten children's perspectives of school on their literacy and self-regulation outcomes. Children's early perspectives were captured in a three-question, finger-puppet interview. Responses to the interview questions were coded thematically as being academic and/or social in nature, and were…

A procedure for predicting categorical outcomes using categorical predictor variables was described by Moonan. This paper describes a related technique which uses prior probabilities, updated by joint likelihoods, as classification criteria. The procedure differs from Moonan's in that the outcome having the greatest posterior probability is…