The authors propose and test a simple model of the time course of visual identification of briefly presented, mutually confusable single stimuli in pure accuracy tasks. The model implies that during stimulus analysis, tentative categorizations that stimulus i belongs to category j are made at a constant Poisson rate, v(i, j). The analysis is…

Computerized classification testing (CCT) is an approach to designing tests with intelligent algorithms, similar to adaptive testing, but specifically designed for the purpose of classifying examinees into categories such as "pass" and "fail." Like adaptive testing for point estimation of ability, the key component is the…

A key challenge for cognitive psychology is the investigation of mental representations, such as object categories, subjective probabilities, choice utilities, and memory traces. In many cases, these representations can be expressed as a non-negative function defined over a set of objects. We present a behavioral method for estimating these…

Association models constitute an attractive alternative to the usual log-linear models for modeling the dependence between classification variables. They impose special structure on the underlying association by assigning scores on the levels of each classification variable, which can be fixed or parametric. Under the general row-column (RC)…

Cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) model the probability of correctly answering an item as a function of an examinee's attribute mastery pattern. Because estimation of the mastery pattern involves more than a continuous measure of ability, reliability concepts introduced by classical test theory and item response theory do not apply. The cognitive…

The Monte Carlo study compared the performance of predictive discriminant analysis (PDA) and that of logistic regression (LR) for the two-group classification problem. Prior probabilities were used for classification, but the cost of misclassification was assumed to be equal. The study used a fully crossed three-factor experimental design (with…

The "Weather Prediction" task is a widely used task for investigating probabilistic category learning, in which various cues are probabilistically (but not perfectly) predictive of class membership. This means that a given combination of cues sometimes belongs to one class and sometimes to another. Prior studies showed that subjects can improve…

Three estimates of the probabilities of correct classification in predictive discriminant analysis were computed using mathematical formulas, resubstitution, and external analyses: (1) optimal hit rate; (2) actual hit rate; and (3) expected actual hit rate. Methods were compared using Monte Carlo sampling from two data sets. (Author/GDC)

The ability of the NORMIX algorithm to recover overlapping population structures was compared to the OVERCLUS procedure and another clustering procedure in a Monte Carlo study. NORMIX is found to be more accurate than other procedures in recovering overlapping population structure when appropriate implementation options are specified. (SLD)

A Monte Carlo approach is proposed, using the Statistical Analysis System (SAS) programming language, for estimating reliability coefficients in generalizability theory studies. Test scores are generated by a probabilistic model that considers the probability for a person with a given ability score to answer an item with a given difficulty…

The power of the classical Linear Discriminant Function (LDF) is compared, using Monte Carlo techniques with five other procedures for classifying observations from certain non-normal distributions. The alternative procedures considered are the Quadratic Discriminant Function, a Nearest Neighbor Procedure with Probability Blocks, and three density…

Measures of the robustness of disease class-specific diagnostic concepts could play a central role in training programs designed to assure the development of diagnostic competence. In the pilot study, the authors used disease/sign-symptom conditional probability estimates, Monte Carlo procedures, and artificial intelligence (AI) tools to create…

The development of a probabilistic model for validating Gange's learning hierarchies is described. Learning hierarchies are defined as paired networks of intellectual tasks arranged so that a substantial amount of positive transfer occurs from tasks in a lower position to connected ones in a higher position. This probabilistic validation technique…