The human capacity for rational decisions hinges on modal judgment: the discernment of what could, has to, or cannot happen. This ability was proposed to be a late outcome of human cognitive development, contingent on the mastery of linguistic structures. Here, we show that preschool-age children are capable of sophisticated forms of modal…

When determining what others know, we intuitively consider not only whether they succeed but also their probability of success in the absence of knowledge (e.g., random guessing). Across three experiments (n = 240 North American 4-6-year-olds, data collected between 2020-2023) we find that 4-year-olds understand that tasks with a lower probability…

Children often say that possible events are impossible, and only gradually come to see these events as possible. For instance, they often deny that people could do unusual things, like own a pet peacock, or immoral things, like stealing or lying. These possibility denials are surprising. For instance, children have first-hand experience with the…

At the modern stage one of the urgent tasks of development of psychology and pedagogy is the study of the basic directions, trends and developmental priorities of research of the specifics of psychological indicators of anticipation of people with whose mental development corresponds to age norms and persons with intellectual and mental…

Observational learning is an important mechanism for cognitive and social development. However, the neurophysiological mechanisms underlying observational learning in children are not well understood. In this study, we used a probabilistic reward-based observational learning paradigm to compare behavioral and electrophysiological markers of…

The Goodenough-Harris Drawing Test (GHDT) is a non-verbal assessment designed to infer young children's levels of intellectual development and understanding via the collection of three human figure drawings (HFDs)--one each of a man, a woman and a self-portrait. This paper presents findings from a research project that applied the Rasch model for…

The COVID-19 pandemic has put virtual schooling at the forefront of policy concerns, as millions of children worldwide shift to virtual schooling with hopes of "slowing the spread". Given the emergency shift to online education coupled with the large increase in demand for virtual education over the last decade it is imperative to…

How likely is the glass to break, given that it is heated? The present study asks questions such as this with or without the premise "if the glass is heated, it breaks." A reduced problem (question without premise) measures the statistical dependency (conditional probability) of an event to occur, given that another has occurred. Such…

Much has been made of the academic success of children who have attended private secondary schools in Britain, but far less attention has been directed to whether there are similar benefits from attending a private primary school. Using data from three British birth cohorts--born in 1958, 1970 and 2000/1--this paper profiles the family background…

How do people make rich inferences from such sparse data? Recent research has explored this inferential ability by investigating probabilistic reasoning in infancy. For example, 8- and 11-month-old infants can make inferences from samples to populations and vice versa (Denison & Xu, 2010a; Xu & Denison, 2009; Xu & Garcia, 2008a). The…

Studies of infant looking times over the past 50 years have provided profound insights about cognitive development, but their dependent measures and analytic techniques are quite limited. In the context of infants' attention to discrete sequential events, we show how a Bayesian data analysis approach can be combined with a rational cognitive…

Symbolic representation of environmental variables is a ubiquitous and often debated component of cognitive science. Yet notwithstanding centuries of philosophical discussion, the efficacy, scope, and validity of such representation has rarely been given direct consideration from a mathematical point of view. This paper introduces a quantitative…

A rich tradition in developmental psychology explores physical reasoning in infancy. However, no research to date has investigated whether infants can reason about physical objects that behave probabilistically, rather than deterministically. Physical events are often quite variable, in that similar-looking objects can be placed in similar…

This paper synthesizes research from the Wabash National Study on Liberal Arts Education, the National Study on Student Learning, and the Research on Iowa Student Experiences study that estimates the influence of certain effective instructional practices on a range of student outcomes. Student perceptions of two specific teacher…

The acquisition of complex motor, cognitive, and social skills, like playing a musical instrument or mastering sports or a language, is generally associated with implicit skill learning (SL). Although it is a general view that SL is most effective in childhood, and such skills are best acquired if learning starts early, this idea has rarely been…