We consider the proposition that reasoners represent causal conditionals such as "if John studies hard, he will do well in the test" as a causal model in which the antecedent ("John studies hard") is a potential cause of the consequent ("John does well in the test"). Some studies suggest that reasoners ignore…

This article presents a latent class model for multilevel data to identify latent subgroups and estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. Unlike sequential approaches that partition data first and then estimate average treatment effects (ATEs) within classes, we employ a Bayesian procedure to jointly estimate mixing probability, selection, and…

Student success and drop-out predictions have gained increased attention in recent years, connected to the hope that by identifying struggling students, it is possible to intervene and provide early help and design programs based on patterns discovered by the models. Though by now many models exist achieving remarkable accuracy-values, models…

Risk is a fundamental component of well-being and is interconnected with all aspects of child development. The aim of this paper is to explore children's (N = 50) own perspectives and perceptions of risky situations. Semi-structured interviews were conducted and images were used as prompts. Children aged five to six years were asked to identify…

We extend to the longitudinal setting a latent class approach that was recently introduced by Lanza, Coffman, and Xu to estimate the causal effect of a treatment. The proposed approach enables an evaluation of multiple treatment effects on subpopulations of individuals from a dynamic perspective, as it relies on a latent Markov (LM) model that is…

The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…

Causal considerations must be relevant for those making decisions. Whether to bring an umbrella or leave it at home depends on the causal consequences of these options. However, most current decision theories do not address causal reasoning. Here, the authors propose a causal model theory of choice based on causal Bayes nets. The critical ideas…

We exploit a natural experiment to estimate the causal impact of parental education on educational outcomes of their children when they are high school seniors. In 1968, the Taiwanese government extended compulsory education from 6 to 9 years and opened over 150 new junior high schools at a differential rate among regions. We form treatment and…

This study provides the first estimates of the causal impact of education on hospitalization. It improves upon existing studies on health and education by using a larger data set and more efficient estimation methods. Using a Danish school reform to identify a causal effect of education on hospitalization, we find that education has a substantial…

Educational assessment is a process of collecting evidence and interpreting it to provide instructors with information regarding students' learning. However, the current design and scoring of most standardized educational tests are insufficient to serve this purpose. The limitation exists primarily due to the lack of cognitive information…

Our primary goal is to design a micro world which aspires to research thinking-in-change about distribution. Our premise, in line with a constructivist approach and our prior research, is that thinking about distribution must develop from causal meanings already established. This study reports on a design research study of how students appear to…

The IADIS CELDA 2012 Conference intention was to address the main issues concerned with evolving learning processes and supporting pedagogies and applications in the digital age. There had been advances in both cognitive psychology and computing that have affected the educational arena. The convergence of these two disciplines is increasing at a…