Most dichotomous item response models share the assumption of latent monotonicity, which states that the probability of a positive response to an item is a nondecreasing function of a latent variable intended to be measured. Latent monotonicity cannot be evaluated directly, but it implies manifest monotonicity across a variety of observed scores,…

This research examines issues regarding model estimation and robustness in the use of Bayesian Inference Networks (BINs) for measuring Learning Progressions (LPs). It provides background information on LPs and how they might be used in practice. Two simulation studies are performed, along with real data examples. The first study examines the case…

In this article, the authors provide a methodological critique of the current standard of value-added modeling forwarded in educational policy contexts as a means of measuring teacher effectiveness. Conventional value-added estimates of teacher quality are attempts to determine to what degree a teacher would theoretically contribute, on average,…

When competence tests are administered, subjects frequently omit items. These missing responses pose a threat to correctly estimating the proficiency level. Newer model-based approaches aim to take nonignorable missing data processes into account by incorporating a latent missing propensity into the measurement model. Two assumptions are typically…

Individuals can partly recreate the "wisdom of crowds" within their own minds by combining nonredundant estimates they themselves have generated. Herzog and Hertwig (2009) showed that this accuracy gain could be boosted by urging people to actively think differently when generating a 2nd estimate ("dialectical bootstrapping").…

The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more…

In the criminal justice system, defendants accused of a crime are presumed innocent until proven guilty. Statistical inference in any context is built on an analogous principle: The null hypothesis--often a hypothesis of "no difference" or "no effect"--is presumed true unless there is sufficient evidence against it. In this…

Online instructional videos are becoming increasingly common within education. This study adopts a quasi-experimental 2 × 2 crossover design (control and experimental groups) to evaluate the efficacy of instructional videos to teach practical rehabilitation skills. The students performed practical sessions in class and were formatively assessed by…

Many librarians use data from surveys to make decisions about how to spend money or allocate staff, often making use of popular online tools like Survey Monkey. In this era of reduced budgets, low staffing, stiff competition for new resources, and increasingly complex choices, it is especially important that librarians know how to get strong,…

One of the distinctions between classical test theory and item response theory is that the former focuses on sum scores and their relationship to true scores, whereas the latter concerns item responses and their relationship to latent scores. Although item response theory is often viewed as the richer of the two theories, sum scores are still…

Propensity score estimation plays a fundamental role in propensity score matching for reducing group selection bias in observational data. To increase the accuracy of propensity score estimation, the author developed a bootstrap propensity score. The commonly used propensity score matching methods: nearest neighbor matching, caliper matching, and…

Researchers are strongly encouraged to accompany the results of statistical tests with appropriate estimates of effect size. For 2-group comparisons, a probability-based effect size estimator ("A") has many appealing properties (e.g., it is easy to understand, robust to violations of parametric assumptions, insensitive to outliers). We review…

It is good scientific practice to the report an appropriate estimate of effect size and a confidence interval (CI) to indicate the precision with which a population effect was estimated. For comparisons of 2 independent groups, a probability-based effect size estimator (A) that is equal to the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve…

High-performing teachers tend to seek out positions at more affluent or academically challenging schools, which tend to hire more experienced, effective educators. Consequently, low-income and minority students are more likely to attend schools with less experienced and less effective educators (see, for example, DeMonte & Hanna, 2014; Office…

We describe an approach to teaching probability that minimizes the amount of class time spent on the topic while also providing a meaningful (dice-rolling) activity to get students engaged. The activity, which has a surprising outcome, illustrates the basic ideas of informal probability and how probability is used in statistical inference.…