This paper reports on an exploratory study about probabilistic intuition in learning mathematics for decision-making. The analysis was carried out on a group of high school students in relation to their probabilistic intuition in problem-solving, after performing playful learning activities on a simulation platform specifically designed for this…

Young children encounter uncertainty and challenges on a daily basis; through their intuitions, experiences and experimentation they construct knowledge, skills and dispositions towards probabilistic concepts. The aim of this exploratory ethnographic study is to identify how young children engage with probabilistic thinking and reasoning while…

Using the famous Birthday problem, we present here a practical activity that allows students to perceive the basic reasoning behind simulation and explore its potential. Through a playful approach with probabilities, students are led along a path that illustrates difficulties with intuition and introduces them to theoretical results for sample…

In this article we study the conceptions of an American and a French group of undergraduate pre-service teachers regarding the concept of independent events. Specifically, we study the role that intuition plays in their answers, ascertain the presence of probabilistic biases, and compare the findings with previous results collected on a different…

Base-rate neglect refers to the tendency for people to underweight base-rate probabilities in favor of diagnostic information. It is commonly held that base-rate neglect occurs because effortful (Type 2) reasoning is required to process base-rate information, whereas diagnostic information is accessible to fast, intuitive (Type 1) processing…

Recent evidence suggests that people are highly efficient at detecting conflicting outputs produced by competing intuitive and analytic reasoning processes. Specifically, De Neys and Glumicic (2008) demonstrated that participants reason longer about problems that are characterized by conflict (as opposed to agreement) between stereotypical…

The paper discusses the interaction between intuitive biases of probabilistic thinking and mathematical knowledge. It would appear that students may answer numerical problems correctly but falter on simple descriptive solutions. Students appear to relinquish formal knowledge for simpler heuristics when attempting to describe the outcome of an…

Describes a study that investigated probabilistic intuitions held by students (N=98) from grade 7 through college through the use of a questionnaire. Of the misconceptions that were investigated, availability was the only one that was stable across age groups. Contains 20 references. (DDR)

To investigate the origins and nature of intuitive obstacles affecting the learning of elementary probability theory, 618 Italian elementary and middle school students were interviewed about their methods of solution for several problems dealing with probability. The discussion focuses on four varieties of obstacles to learning prevalent within…