Probability and independence are difficult concepts, as they require the coordination of multiple ideas. This qualitative research study used clinical interviews to understand how three undergraduate students conceptualize probability and probabilistic independence within the theoretical framework of APOS theory. One student's reasoning was…

In this paper, we derive the result of the classical gambler's ruin problem using elementary linear algebra. Moreover, the pedagogical advantage of the derivation is briefly discussed.

We study here an aspect of an infinite set "P" of multivariate polynomials, the elements of which are associated with the arithmetic-geometric-mean inequality. In particular, we show in this article that there exist infinite subsets of probability "P" for which every element may be expressed as a finite sum of squares of real…

This study reports the results of a study examining how easily students are able to transfer frequency solutions to conditional probability problems to novel situations. University students studied either a problem solved using the traditional Bayes formula format or using a natural frequency (tree diagram) format. In addition, the example problem…

Being able to characterize the size of raindrops is useful in a number of fields including meteorology, hydrology, agriculture and telecommunications. Associated with this article are data sets containing surface (i.e. ground-level) measurements of raindrop size from two different instruments and two different geographical locations. Students may…

This article presents four inquiry-based learning activities developed for a liberal arts math course. The activities cover four topics: the Pythagorean theorem, interest theory, optimization, and the Monty Hall problem. Each activity consists of a dialogue, with a theme and characters related to the topic, and a manipulative, that allow students…

Research on teaching high school mathematics shows that the topic of percentages often causes learning difficulties. This article describes a method of teaching percentages that the authors used in university bridging courses. In this method, the information from a word problem about percentages is presented in a two-way table. Such a table gives…

Bayes's theorem is notorious for being a difficult topic to learn and to teach. Problems involving Bayes's theorem (either implicitly or explicitly) generally involve calculations based on two or more given probabilities and their complements. Further, a correct solution depends on students' ability to interpret the problem correctly. Most people…

In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

A heuristic approach to explaining of the Black-Scholes option pricing model in undergraduate classes is described. The approach draws upon the method of protocol analysis to encourage students to "think aloud" so that their mental models can be surfaced. It also relies upon extensive visualizations to communicate relationships that are…

University of Chicago School Mathematics Project (UCSMP) Algebra is a one-year course covering three primary topics: (1) linear and quadratic expressions, sentences, and functions; (2) exponential expressions and functions; and (3) linear systems. Topics from geometry, probability, and statistics are integrated with the appropriate algebra.…

The well-known "hats" problem, in which a number of people enter a restaurant and check their hats, and then receive them back at random, is often used to illustrate the concept of derangements, that is, permutations with no fixed points. In this paper, the problem is extended to multiple items of clothing, and a general solution to the problem of…

The mean and variance of some continuous distributions, in particular the exponentially decreasing probability distribution and the normal distribution, are considered. Since they involve integration by parts, many students do not feel comfortable. In this note, a technique is demonstrated for deriving mean and variance through differential…

Accurate and accessible expressions for the probability of having a matching birthday are obtained by using Stirling's formula and Taylor series. For interest, the results are applied to the planets of our solar system.

Given a set of urns, each filled with a mix of black chips and white chips, what is the probability of drawing a black chip from the last urn after some sequential random shifts of chips among the urns? The Total Probability Formula (TPF) is the common tool to solve such a problem. However, when the number of urns is more than two and the number…