A more motivating way of introducing students to probability theory is through real-world problems. Since heuristics play an important role in our probabilistic judgement, knowing how to avoid incorrect probabilistic reasoning, which leads to several biases, could help students to develop more critical thinking skills. In this paper, we present a…

Much of our real-life decision making is bounded by uncertain information, limitations in cognitive resources, and a lack of time to allocate to the decision process. It is thought that humans overcome these limitations through "satisficing," fast but "good-enough" heuristic decision making that prioritizes some sources of…

The Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) is a counterintuitive probability problem in which participants often use misleading heuristics, such as the equiprobability bias. Finding the optimal solution to the MHD requires inhibition of these heuristics. In the current study, we investigated the relation between participants' equiprobability bias and their MHD…

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative model of problem solving performance of students in the computer-based mathematics learning environment. Design/methodology/approach: Regularized logistic regression was used to create a quantitative model of problem solving performance of students that predicts whether students can…

If the prospective students of probability lack a background in mathematical proofs, hands-on classroom activities may work well to help them to learn to analyze problems correctly. For example, students may physically roll a die twice to count and compare the frequency of the sequences. Tools such as graphing calculators or Microsoft Excel®…

A heuristic approach to explaining of the Black-Scholes option pricing model in undergraduate classes is described. The approach draws upon the method of protocol analysis to encourage students to "think aloud" so that their mental models can be surfaced. It also relies upon extensive visualizations to communicate relationships that are…

Examined the problem-solving performances of novices (11 undergraduates) and experts (9 graduate students and instructors), comparing them in terms of background expertise and problem-solving success. Also examined problem-solving behaviors reported in other domains and determined whether or not genetics is a fruitful area for problem-solving…

Protocols were obtained from 22 subjects as they discovered the conditions under which equilibrium is obtained on a balance beam by predicting and observing the outcomes of a series of problems. The interviews revealed that subjects used a variety of heuristics to make predictions once they had isolated the two relevant features of the problem,…

Eight experiments examined whether certain human problem-solving mechanisms should be expected to represent probability information in terms of frequency. Findings are consistent with literature indicating that frequentist representations eliminate various cognitive biases, including overconfidence, the conjunction fallacy, and base rate neglect.…

The explicit, experimental introduction of a series of logical inconsistencies is described and recommended as a means of disrupting the faulty logic and, thereby, enhancing the use of more appropriate probabilistic reasoning by graduate students enrolled in an introductory inferential statistics course. (14 references) (JJK)

Two experiments, with 300 adult women as subjects, studied the effects of laboratory training on the use of the Conjunction Rule, a principle of probability that is often violated. Learning alternative strategies enabled trained subjects to use extensional reasoning rather than intensional heuristics. (SLD)

This paper illustrates a model of the layperson's reasoning patterns under conditions of uncertainty, the "outcome approach," which was developed from analysis of videotaped problem-solving interviews with 16 undergraduate students. According to the outcome approach, the goal in questions of uncertainty is to predict the outcome of an…