Lord's paradox arises from the conflicting inferences obtained from two alternative approaches that are typically used in evaluating the treatment effect using a pre-post test design. The two main approaches for analyzing such data are: (1) to regress the change from pretest to posttest on the treatment indicator (change score approach; CS); (2)…

States in the Regional Educational Laboratory (REL) Central region serve a largely rural population with many states enrolling fewer than 350,000 students. A common challenge identified among REL Central educators is identifying appropriate methods for analyzing data with small samples of students. In particular, members of the REL Central…

Educational analysts studying achievement and other educational outcomes frequently encounter an association between initial status and growth, which has important implications for the analysis of covariate effects, including group differences in growth. As explicated by Allison (1990), where only two time points of data are available, identifying…

Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs) increasingly are being used in the United States for inferences about student achievement growth and educator effectiveness. Emerging research has indicated that SGPs estimated from observed test scores have large measurement errors. As such, little is known about "true" SGPs, which are defined in terms…

Research on effects of home computer use on children's development of cognitive abilities and skills has yielded conflicting results, with some studies showing positive effects, others no effects, and yet others negative effects. These studies have typically used non-experimental designs and one of the main reasons for the conflicting results is…

This case study relates to distance learning students on open access courses. It demonstrates the use of predictive analytics to generate a model of the probabilities of success and retention at different points, or milestones, in a student journey. A core set of explanatory variables has been established and their varying relative importance at…

The Arizona legislature passed HB 2281, which eliminated Tucson Unified School District's (TUSD's) Mexican American Studies (MAS) program, arguing the curriculum was too political. This program has been at the center of contentious debates, but a central question has not been thoroughly examined: Do the classes raise student achievement? The…

The study of prediction bias is important and the last five decades include research studies that examined whether test scores differentially predict academic or employment performance. Previous studies used ordinary least squares (OLS) to assess whether groups differ in intercepts and slopes. This study shows that OLS yields inaccurate inferences…

This dissertation comprises three papers that propose, discuss, and illustrate models to make improved inferences about research questions regarding student achievement in education. Addressing the types of questions common in educational research today requires three different "extensions" to traditional educational assessment: (1)…

This methodological brief introduces the readers to the propensity score matching method, which can be used for enhancing the validity of causal inferences in research situations involving nonexperimental design or observational research, or in situations where the benefits of an experimental design are not fully realized because of reasons beyond…

This paper investigates how the precision and stability of a teacher's value-added estimate relates to the characteristics of the teacher's students. Using a large administrative data set and a variety of teacher value-added estimators, it finds that the stability over time of teacher value-added estimates can depend on the previous achievement…

The achievement level is a variable measured with error, that can be estimated by means of the Rasch model. Teacher grades also measure the achievement level but they are expressed on a different scale. This paper proposes a method for combining these two scores to obtain a synthetic measure of the achievement level based on the theory developed…

In organizational studies involving multiple levels, the association between a covariate and an outcome often differs at different levels of aggregation, giving rise to widespread interest in "contextual effects models." Such models partition the regression into within- and between-cluster components. The conventional approach uses each…

The term "gifted" implies a permanent superiority. However, the majority of children who score in the top few percentiles on ability and achievement tests in 1 grade do not retain their status for more than a year or 2. The tendency of those with high scores on one occasion to obtain somewhat lower scores on a later occasion is one…

The higher education community needs measures of the value added to student development by the college experience. The American College Testing Program (ACT) provides a quick, easy method for estimating the extent of student growth in general education. An institution can test seniors with the ACT College Outcome Measures Project (COMP) exam, then…