Population adjustment methods such as matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC) are increasingly used to compare marginal treatment effects when there are cross-trial differences in effect modifiers and limited patient-level data. MAIC is based on propensity score weighting, which is sensitive to poor covariate overlap and cannot extrapolate…

We study flexible Bayesian methods that are amenable to a wide range of learning problems involving complex high dimensional data structures, with minimal tuning. We consider parametric and semiparametric Bayesian models, that are applicable to both static and dynamic data, arising from a multitude of areas such as economics, finance and…

In the machine learning literature, it is commonly accepted as fact that as calibration sample sizes increase, Naïve Bayes classifiers initially outperform Logistic Regression classifiers in terms of classification accuracy. Applied to subtests from an on-line final examination and from a highly regarded certification examination, this study shows…

What factors best explain the low incidence of skills training in a late industrial society like Russia? This research undertakes a multilevel analysis of the role of occupational structure in the probability of training. The explanatory power of occupation-specific determinants and skills polarization are evaluated, using a representative 2012…

Stan is a free and open-source C++ program that performs Bayesian inference or optimization for arbitrary user-specified models and can be called from the command line, R, Python, Matlab, or Julia and has great promise for fitting large and complex statistical models in many areas of application. We discuss Stan from users' and developers'…

Online adaptive tutoring systems are increasingly being used in classrooms as a way to provide guided learning for students. Such tutors have the potential to provide tailored feedback based on specific student needs and misunderstandings. Bayesian knowledge tracing (BKT) is used to model student knowledge when knowledge is assumed to be changing…

Additive Factors Model (AFM) and Performance Factors Analysis (PFA) are two popular models of student learning that employ logistic regression to estimate parameters and predict performance. This is in contrast to Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) which uses a Hidden Markov Model formalism. While all three models tend to make similar predictions,…

To date, in gifted education and related fields various conventional factor analytic and clustering techniques have been used extensively for investigation of the underlying structure of data. Latent profile analysis is a relatively new method in the field. In this article, we provide an introduction to latent profile analysis for gifted education…

Bayesian techniques have become increasingly present in the social sciences, fueled by advances in computer speed and the development of user-friendly software. In this paper, we forward the use of Bayesian Asymmetric Regression (BAR) to monitor intervention responsiveness when using Curriculum-Based Measurement (CBM) to assess oral reading…

A long-standing challenge for knowledge tracing is how to update estimates of multiple subskills that underlie a single observable step. We characterize approaches to this problem by how they model knowledge tracing, fit its parameters, predict performance, and update subskill estimates. Previous methods allocated blame or credit among subskills…

Propensity score applications are often used to evaluate educational program impact. However, various options are available to estimate both propensity scores and construct comparison groups. This study used a student achievement dataset with commonly available covariates to compare different propensity scoring estimation methods (logistic…

Although ITSs are supposed to adapt to differences among learners, so far, little attention has been paid to how they might adapt to differences in how students learn from help. When students study with an Intelligent Tutoring System, they may receive multiple types of help, but may not comprehend and make use of this help in the same way. To…

Sharing user information between systems is an area of interest for every field involving personalization. Recommender Systems are more advanced in this aspect than Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) and Intelligent Learning Environments (ILEs). A reason for this is that the user models of Intelligent Tutoring Systems and Intelligent Learning…

Recently, researchers have investigated differences in decision making based on description and experience. We address the issue of when experience-based judgments of probability are more accurate than are those based on description. If description is well understood ("transparent") and experience is misleading ("wicked"), it…

Doubly bounded continuous data are common in the social and behavioral sciences. Examples include judged probabilities, confidence ratings, derived proportions such as percent time on task, and bounded scale scores. Dependent variables of this kind are often difficult to analyze using normal theory models because their distributions may be quite…