Students often believe that statistical significance is the only determinant of whether a quantitative result is "important." In this paper, I review traditional null hypothesis statistical testing to identify what questions inferential statistics can and cannot answer, including statistical significance, effect size and direction,…

In educational contexts, students often self-select into specific interventions (e.g., courses, majors, extracurricular programming). When students self-select into an intervention, systematic group differences may impact the validity of inferences made regarding the effect of the intervention. Propensity score methods are commonly used to reduce…

The purpose of this paper is to use both conceptual and statistical approaches to explore publication bias in recent causal effects studies in science education, and to draw from this exploration implications for researchers, journal reviewers, and journal editors. This paper fills a void in the "science education" literature as no…

Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

Some form of a short interrupted time series (ITS) is often used to evaluate state and national programs. An ITS design with a single treatment group assumes that the pretest functional form can be validly estimated and extrapolated into the postintervention period where it provides a valid counterfactual. This assumption is problematic. Ambiguous…

In an effort to expand the pool of scientific evidence available for review, the What Works Clearinghouse (WWC) assembled a panel of national experts in single-case design (SCD) and analysis to draft SCD Standards. SCDs are adaptations of interrupted time-series designs and can provide a rigorous experimental evaluation of intervention effects.…

This article compares Donald Campbell's and Donald Rubin's work on causal inference in field settings on issues of epistemology, theories of cause and effect, methodology, statistics, generalization, and terminology. The two approaches are quite different but compatible, differing mostly in matters of bandwidth versus fidelity. Campbell's work…

The purpose of this paper is to provide an in-depth critical analysis of the use and misuse of correlation coefficients. Various analytical and interpretational misconceptions are reviewed, beginning with the egregious assumption that correlational statistics may be useful in inferring causality. Additional misconceptions, stemming from…

Explores the role of theory in strengthening causal interpretations in nonexperimental research. Evaluators must conduct theory-driven research, concentrating on "small theory," in that the focus is on the explanation of processes specific to the program being evaluated. Theory-guided treatment research must be programmatic and…