This paper presents a model of recurrent multinomial sequences. Though there exists a quite considerable literature on modeling autocorrelation in numerical data and sequences of categorical outcomes, there is currently no systematic method of modeling patterns of recurrence in categorical sequences. This paper develops a means of discovering…

Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is an empirical research method that has gained some popularity in the social sciences. At the same time, the literature has long been convinced that QCA is prone to committing causal fallacies when confronted with non-causal data. More specifically, beyond a certain case-to-factor ratio, the method is…

Social scientists seeking to inform policy or public action must carefully consider how to identify effects and express inferences because actions based on invalid inferences will not yield the intended results. Recognizing the complexities and uncertainties of social science, we seek to inform inevitable debates about causal inferences by…

Randomized A/B tests allow causal estimation without confounding but are often under-powered. This paper uses a new dataset, including over 250 randomized comparisons conducted in an online learning platform, to illustrate a method combining data from A/B tests with log data from users who were not in the experiment. Inference remains exact and…

Quasi-experimental methods are a cornerstone of applied social science, providing critical answers to causal questions that inform policy and practice. Although open science principles have influenced experimental research norms across the social sciences, these practices are rarely implemented in quasi-experimental research. In this paper, we…

Researchers often seek to synthesize results of multiple studies on the same topic to draw statistical or substantive conclusions and to estimate effect sizes that will inform power analyses for future research. The most popular synthesis approach is meta-analysis. There have been few discussions and applications of other synthesis approaches.…

One part of COVID-19's staggering impact on education has been to suspend or fundamentally alter ongoing education research projects. This article addresses how to analyze the simple but fundamental example of a multi-cohort study in which student assessment data for the final cohort are missing because schools were closed, learning was virtual,…

Background: Over the past decade, research on the development and assessment of tools to improve the generalizability of experimental findings has grown extensively (Tipton & Olsen, 2018). However, many experimental studies in education are based on small samples, which may include 30-70 schools while inference populations to which…

This article demonstrates how a technique called Agent-Based Modelling can address a significant challenge for effective interdisciplinarity. Different disciplines and research methods make divergent assertions about what a satisfactory explanation requires. However, without a unified framework analysing the implications of these differences…

In the complex world of educational policy, causal inferences will be debated. As we review non-experimental designs in educational policy, we focus on how to clarify and focus the terms of debate. We begin by presenting the potential outcomes/counterfactual framework and then describe approximations to the counterfactual generated from the…

Obtaining relevant data and conveying limitations of the results are two integral components to a successful statistical analysis. It is difficult for students to internalize a deep understanding of these components using only curated, textbook-style examples. Through hands-on data collection, this activity provides a channel for students to…

Courses: Research methods for undergraduates or graduates. Objectives: The aims of this activity are: (1) to clarify the basics of experimental design; (2) to illustrate the concept of levels of measurement; (3) to demonstrate in-person/hands-on data collection procedures; (4) to understand and practice the steps in null hypothesis testing; and…

Library and information science (LIS) research is becoming more quantitative. However, statistics is not extensively taught within LIS research methods courses, and statistics courses are uncommon within LIS programs. Previous research on statistics in LIS revealed that researchers have mainly relied on descriptive statistics in publications. This…

Purpose: This article presents a basic exploration of Bayesian inference to inform researchers unfamiliar to this type of analysis of the many advantages this readily available approach provides. Method: First, we demonstrate the development of Bayes' theorem, the cornerstone of Bayesian statistics, into an iterative process of updating priors.…

Students often believe that statistical significance is the only determinant of whether a quantitative result is "important." In this paper, I review traditional null hypothesis statistical testing to identify what questions inferential statistics can and cannot answer, including statistical significance, effect size and direction,…