Gonzalez and Dutt (2011) recently reported that trends during sampling, prior to a consequential risky decision, reveal a gradual movement from exploration to exploitation. That is, even when search imposes no immediate costs, people adopt the same pattern manifest in costly search: early exploration followed by later exploitation. From this…

Hills and Hertwig (2012) challenge the proposed similarity of the exploration-exploitation transitions found in Gonzalez and Dutt (2011) between the 2 experimental paradigms of decisions from experience (sampling and repeated-choice), which was predicted by an instance-based learning (IBL) model. The heart of their argument is that in the sampling…

There is considerable research on the difficulties students have in conceptualising individual concepts of probability and statistics (see for example, Bryant & Nunes, 2012; Jones, 2005). The unit of work developed for the action research project described in this article is specifically designed to address some of these in order to help…

Adaptive decision making requires that contingencies between decision options and their relative assets be assessed accurately and quickly. The present research addresses the challenging notion that contingencies may be more visible from small than from large samples of observations. An algorithmic account for such a seemingly paradoxical effect…

A statistical definition of information utilization for policy making decisions and an evaluation impact test to determine its occurrence are proposed. A univariate time series analysis is used to identify the internal trend for a given policy output variable and to control its effect. Two problems are identified in implementing an evaluation…