Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) admit unconfounded design-based inference--randomization largely justifies the assumptions underlying statistical effect estimates--but often have limited sample sizes. However, researchers may have access to big observational data on covariates and outcomes from RCT non-participants. For example, data from A/B…

Although immediacy is one of the necessary criteria to show strong evidence of a causal relation in SCDs, no inferential statistical tool is currently used to demonstrate it. We propose a Bayesian unknown change-point model to investigate and quantify immediacy in SCD analysis. Unlike visual analysis that considers only 3-5 observations in…

A method for drawing inferences from complex samples is based on Rubin's approach to missing data in survey research. Standard procedures for drawing such inferences do not apply when the variables of interest are not observed directly, but must be inferred from secondary random variables which depend on the variables of interest stochastically.…