In describing how people generalize from observed samples of data to novel cases, theories of inductive inference have emphasized the learner's reliance on the contents of the sample. More recently, a growing body of literature suggests that different assumptions about how a data sample was generated can lead the learner to draw qualitatively…

An individual's neurodevelopmental and cognitive sequelae to negative early experiences may, in part, be explained by genetic susceptibility. We examined whether extreme differences in the early caregiving environment, defined as exposure to severe psychosocial deprivation associated with institutional care compared to normative rearing,…

We present a proposal--"The Sampling Hypothesis"--suggesting that the variability in young children's responses may be part of a rational strategy for inductive inference. In particular, we argue that young learners may be randomly sampling from the set of possible hypotheses that explain the observed data, producing different hypotheses with…

The difficulties introductory statistics students have with formal statistical inference are well known in the field of statistics education. "Informal" statistical inference has been studied as a means to introduce inferential reasoning well before and without the formalities of formal statistical inference. This mixed methods study…

Rational models of cognition typically consider the abstract computational problems posed by the environment, assuming that people are capable of optimally solving those problems. This differs from more traditional formal models of cognition, which focus on the psychological processes responsible for behavior. A basic challenge for rational models…

Computer simulations and animations for developing statistical concepts are often not understood by beginners. Hands-on physical simulations that morph into computer simulations are teaching approaches that can build students' concepts. In this paper we review the literature on visual and verbal cognitive processing and on the efficacy of…

The authors use proven cognitive and learning principles and recent developments in the field of educational psychology to teach the concept of the sampling distribution of the mean, which is arguably one of the most central concepts in inferential statistics. The proposed pedagogical approach relies on cognitive load, contiguity, and experiential…

Implications of difficulties in using intuitive statistical reasoning are considered as they bear on the theoretic model viewing persons as intuitive scientists who make causal attributions in everyday life. Data sampling strategies and use of judgment rules to identify covariant events were investigated in two studies. Using a rule-analytic…

Variation is a key concept in the study of statistics and its understanding is a crucial aspect of most statistically related tasks. This study aimed to extend and apply a hierarchy for describing students' understanding of variation that was developed in a sampling context to the context of a natural event in which variation occurs. Students aged…