This paper addresses a common challenge with computational cognitive models: identifying parameter values that are both theoretically plausible and generate predictions that match well with empirical data. While computational models can offer deep explanations of cognition, they are computationally complex and often out of reach of traditional…

Humans excel in categorization. Yet from a computational standpoint, learning a novel probabilistic classification task involves severe computational challenges. The present paper investigates one way to address these challenges: assuming class-conditional independence of features. This feature independence assumption simplifies the inference…

Survey data are often subject to various types of errors such as misclassification. In this article, we consider a model where interest is simultaneously in two correlated response variables and one is potentially subject to misclassification. A motivating example of a recent study of the impact of a sexual education course for adolescents is…

Acquiring the correct meanings of words expressing quantities ("seven, most") and qualities ("red, spotty") present a challenge to learners. Understanding how children succeed at this requires understanding, not only of what kinds of data are available to them, but also the biases and expectations they bring to the learning…

Generalized fiducial inference is a powerful tool for many difficult problems. Based on an extension of R. A. Fisher's work, we used generalized fiducial inference for two extreme value problems and a multiple comparison procedure. The first extreme value problem is dealing with the generalized Pareto distribution. The generalized Pareto…

Recently, researchers have investigated differences in decision making based on description and experience. We address the issue of when experience-based judgments of probability are more accurate than are those based on description. If description is well understood ("transparent") and experience is misleading ("wicked"), it…

Association models constitute an attractive alternative to the usual log-linear models for modeling the dependence between classification variables. They impose special structure on the underlying association by assigning scores on the levels of each classification variable, which can be fixed or parametric. Under the general row-column (RC)…

Anomaly detection is an important and indispensable aspect of any computer security mechanism. Ad hoc and mobile networks consist of a number of peer mobile nodes that are capable of communicating with each other absent a fixed infrastructure. Arbitrary node movements and lack of centralized control make them vulnerable to a wide variety of…

Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

Through Monte Carlo simulation, respective normative and intuitive strategies for covariation assessment and Bayesian inference are compared. Results indicate that better performance in both tasks results from considering alternative hypotheses, although not necessarily using a normative strategy. Conditions under which intuitive strategies may be…