This study explored whether a predictive model of student loan default could be developed with data from an institution's three-year cohort default rate report. The study used borrower data provided by a large two-year community college. Independent variables under investigation included total undergraduate Stafford student loan debt, total number…

Demand for Pell Grant financial aid has become difficult to predict when using the current microsimulation model. This paper proposes an alternative model that uses aggregate data (based on individuals' microlevel decisions and macrodata on family incomes, college costs, and opportunity wages) and avoids some limitations of simple linear models.…

An evaluation of existing and proposed mechanisms to ensure data accuracy for the Pell Grant program is reported, and recommendations for efficient detection of fraud and error in the program are offered. One study objective was to examine the existing system of pre-established criteria (PEC), which are validation criteria that select students on…

The development of the error prone model (EPM) for the 1984-1985 student financial aid validation criteria for Pell Grant recipient selection is discussed, based on a comparison of the 1983-1984 EPM criteria and a newly estimated EPM. Procedures/assumptions on which the new EPM was based include: a sample of 1982-1983 Pell Grant recipients…

The development of a number of error-prone models to select Pell Grant recipients for validation is discussed. The 1983-1984 Pell Grant validation strategy consists of a two-stage approach: selection using Pre-Established Criteria (PEC) followed by selection using Error Prone Modeling (EPM). The database used for model development consists of a…