Given the necessity to bridge the gap between what happened and what is likely to happen, this paper aims to explore how to apply Bayesian inference to cost-effectiveness analysis so as to capture the uncertainty of a ratio-type efficiency measure. The first part of the paper summarizes the characteristics of the evaluation data that are commonly…

Play is traditionally considered the foundation of learning in the early years. Because play is characterized by free choice, it can be difficult for adults to ensure all learning is useful for children. The intervention described here took a novel approach to this problematic. It exposed 17 four-year-olds to different adult demonstrations to see…

To the data analyst, outliers can present both a problem and an opportunity. Stray or outlying observations can severly distort estimates of a distribution's central tendency (like the mean) and estimates of one variable's relationship to another (like the regression coefficient). These problems are frequent and serious, and as a result,…

The orientation of this report is that of identifying educational projects which can be considered clearly exemplary. The largest section consists of a 22-step procedure for validating the effectiveness of educational projects using existing evaluation data. It is not intended as a guide for conducting evaluations but rather for interpreting data…

Results are presented from a study of Project SHOUT, a tobacco-use prevention program which targets sixth and seventh graders. Distinguished from similar programs by its use of college students rather than peer or teacher leaders, Project SHOUT serves as a pilot for a generic tobacco-use prevention program. (IAH)

The inherent methodological problem in conducting research at multiple sites is how to best derive an overall estimate of program impact across multiple sites, best being the estimate that minimizes the mean square error, that is, the square of the difference between the observed and true values. An empirical example illustrates the use of the…

A study was conducted to address the question of what impact the expansion of employment and training programs for youth (such as the Youth Employment Demonstration Projects Act of 1977) is likely to have on employment and unemployment of young people. The method used in the analysis was to specify a model (similar to the Markov model) of the…

This document is a continuation of CE 028 077 and uses the same statistical model (Markov Processes) with slight variations on the technique to carry out a simulation of the impact of the expansion in youth employment programs which occurred in fiscal 1978. Department of Labor 1977 figures for the total number of job/training positions funded by…

This paper develops an approach to estimating the effect of government employment and training programs on measured unemployment. The theoretical aspects of the method draws heavily on earlier work on labor market flow equilibrium (see note). Previous estimates of the direct or statistical impact of government programs on the unemployment rate…

This report describes results of a demonstration project carried out in four cities during 1971-72. The project aimed at exploring the feasibility and impact of two different forms of money incentives payments. In one form -- the "Teacher-Only" model -- the teachers in a school were offered a series of bonuses ranging from $150 to $600 per class…