The import or force of the result of a statistical test has long been portrayed as consistent with deductive reasoning. The simplest form of deductive argument has a first premise with conditional form, such as p[right arrow]q, which means that "if p is true, then q must be true." Given the first premise, one can either affirm or deny…

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and provide examples and tentative explanations of a number of statistical…

In late November 2020, there was a flurry of media coverage of two companies' claims of 95% efficacy rates of newly developed COVID-19 vaccines, but information about the confidence interval was not reported. This paper presents a way of teaching the concept of hypothesis testing and the construction of confidence intervals using numbers announced…

Although the null hypothesis significance testing procedure is problematic, many still favor the use of "p"-values as indicating the state of evidence against the model used to generate the "p"-value. From this perspective, "p"-values benefit science; or would benefit science if used correctly. In contrast, the novel…

The natural experiment proposed in this article extracts three stories from boxes of "100 paper clips". The activity requires students to apply three lessons from inferential statistics, starting with a hypothesis test and including confidence intervals as well as tolerance intervals.

BASIE is a framework for interpreting impact estimates from evaluations. It is an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing. This guide walks researchers through the key steps of applying BASIE, including selecting prior evidence, reporting impact estimates, interpreting impact estimates, and conducting sensitivity analyses. The guide…

When a psychologist announces a new research finding, it is often based on a rejected null hypothesis. However, if that hypothesis is true, the claim is a false alarm. Many students mistakenly believe that the probability of committing a false alarm equals alpha, the criterion for statistical significance, which is typically set at 5%. Instructors…

"p" values are commonly reported in quantitative research, but are often misunderstood and misinterpreted by research consumers. Our aim in this article is to provide special educators with guidance for appropriately interpreting "p" values, with the broader goal of improving research consumers' understanding and interpretation…

Stimuli that capture the central tendency of presented exemplars are often preferred--a phenomenon also known as the classic beauty-in-averageness effect. However, recent studies have shown that this effect can reverse under certain conditions. We propose that a key variable for such ugliness-in-averageness effects is the category structure of the…

In recent years, there has been increasing focus on the issue of multiple hypotheses testing in education evaluation studies. In these studies, researchers are typically interested in testing the effectiveness of an intervention on multiple outcomes, for multiple subgroups, at multiple points in time or across multiple treatment groups. When…

To begin statistical analysis, Bayesians quantify their confidence in modeling hypotheses with priors. A prior describes the probability of a certain modeling hypothesis apart from the data. Bayesians should be able to defend their choice of prior to a skeptical audience. Collaboration between evaluators and stakeholders could make their choices…

Social responsibility has been linked to the moral development of students, but little prior research has examined how personal and situational variables influence students' willingness to show care and concern for social issues that reflect higher levels of moral development. We theorised and tested the hypotheses that females would endorse…

Program satisfaction, self-efficacy to change, and willingness to change, are dispositions that influence physical education teacher change. The study purpose was to validate an instrument measuring program satisfaction, self-efficacy to change, and willingness to change relative to teachers' likelihood to change. A 15-item Teacher Change…

This paper introduces a dataset and associated analysis of the scores of National Football League (NFL) games over the 2012, 2013, and first five weeks of the 2014 season. In the face of current media attention to "lopsided" scores in Thursday night games in the early part of the 2014 season, t-test results indicate no statistically…

School failure is substantive in Spain. The percentage of students that do not achieve the compulsory education diploma is around 20%. School failure is higher for students from lower socio-economic backgrounds. Students who "fail" cannot continue to post-compulsory education and, sooner or later, they have to leave formal education. The…