Critiques violence prediction via methods for quantifying accuracy that fail to control for base rates or biases and describes how receiver-operating characteristic analysis can compensate. Via reanalysis of datasets from previously published studies suggests that mental health professionals' violence predictions are substantially more accurate…

Three computer simulations were conducted to show that very high aggregate predictive validity coefficients can occur when the across-case variability in absolute score stability occurring in both the predictor and criterion matrices is quite small. In light of the increase in internal consistency reliability achieved by the method of aggregation…

Compares the accuracy of various student test score projection techniques, including idiographic analysis, standard score method, regression analysis, and a differential equation growth model. Concludes with an overview of the problems of projecting student test scores and suggests a stochastic procedure based on Bayesian analysis for educational…

This study was concerned with an investigation of artistic talent measures, the identification of artistic talent, and an examination of the relationship of organizational characteristics to artistic performance. The predictor instrument used was a specially constructed questionnaire made up of multiple choice biographical items and selected…

Models proposed by Cleary, Thorndike, Cole, Einhorn and Bass, and Darlington for analyzing bias in the use of tests in a selection strategy are surveyed. Six additional models for test bias are also introduced. The purpose is to describe, compare, contrast, and evaluate these models while, at the same time, extracting such useful ideas as may be…

(See also TM 501 087, TM 501 088, TM 501 090.)

(See also TM 501 087, TM 501 088, and TM 501 089.)

Results in this study suggest that it is possible to use performance on a moderator or predictability scale to select a subgroup for whom correspondence between two predictors and the criterion is much greater than that of a subgroup whose scores on the moderator indicate a lesser degree of correspondence. (Author/ES)

Calls attention to several errors in a recent application of canonical correlation analysis. The reanalysis contradicts Cropley's conclusion that "creativity tests can be said to possess reasonable and encouraging long-range predictive validity." (Author/SDH)

Three measures of person-fit (the extent to which an examinee's response pattern on a multiple-choice test is consistent with his ability as estimated by total score) were computed for students taking classroom tests under 12 different instructors at a comprehensive university. Supplementary questions on each test inquired concerning students'…

Findings from a study of 127 outpatients with noninsulin dependent diabetes mellitus indicate that self-efficacy and outcome expectations are moderately strong predictors of self-care in the exercise regimen, but weaker predictors in the dietary and glucose testing areas. (IAH)

How the validity of gain scores varies with the standard deviations of pretest and posttest scores and the correlation between the two are analyzed. Earlier findings that under realistic testing conditions difference scores can have excellent predictive value are supported. Conditions under which gain scores have optimum validity are specified.…

The common approach to studies of predictive bias is analyzed within the context of a conceptual model in which predictors and criterion measures are viewed as fallible indicators of idealized qualifications. (Author/PN)