This paper aims to showcase the value of implementing a Bayesian framework to analyze and report results from international large-scale assessments and provide guidance to users who want to analyse ILSA data using this approach. The motivation for this paper stems from the recognition that Bayesian statistical inference is fast becoming a popular…

Foundations of statistics research aims to establish fundamental principles guiding inference about populations under uncertainty. It is concerned with the process of learning from observations, notions of uncertainty and induction, and satisfying inferential objectives. The growing interest in predictive methods in high-stakes fields like…

The present work focuses on the performance of two types of shrinkage priors--the horseshoe prior and the recently developed regularized horseshoe prior--in the context of inducing sparsity in path analysis and growth curve models. Prior research has shown that these horseshoe priors induce sparsity by at least as much as the "gold…

Of critical importance to education policy is monitoring trends in education outcomes over time. In the United States, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has provided long-term trend data since 1970; at the state/jurisdiction level, NAEP has provided long-term trend data since 1996. In addition to the national NAEP, all 50…

This report aims to showcase the value of implementing a Bayesian framework to analyse and report results from international large-scale surveys and provide guidance to users who want to analyse the data using this approach. The motivation for this report stems from the recognition that Bayesian statistical inference is fast becoming a popular…

Multilevel modeling (MLM) is a statistical technique for analyzing clustered data. Despite its long history, the technique and accompanying computer programs are rapidly evolving. Given the complexity of multilevel models, it is crucial for researchers to provide complete and transparent descriptions of the data, statistical analyses, and results.…

Statistical analysis of categorical data often relies on multiway contingency tables; yet, as the number of categories and/or variables increases, the number of table cells with few (or zero) observations also increases. Unfortunately, sparse contingency tables invalidate the use of standard good-ness-of-fit statistics. Limited-information fit…

Identifying patterns in the world requires noticing not only unusual occurrences, but also unusual absences. We examined how people learn from absences, manipulating the extent to which an absence is expected. People can make two types of inferences from the absence of an event: either the event is possible but has not yet occurred, or the event…

In this dissertation I argue that truth-conditional semantics for vague predicates, combined with a Bayesian account of statistical inference incorporating knowledge of truth-conditions of utterances, generates false predictions regarding negations and metalinguistic inference. I thus propose a fundamentally probabilistic semantics for vagueness…

Bayesian item response theory (IRT) modeling stages include (a) specifying the IRT likelihood model, (b) specifying the parameter prior distributions, (c) obtaining the posterior distribution, and (d) making appropriate inferences. The latter stage, and the focus of this research, includes model criticism. Choice of priors with the posterior…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) admit unconfounded design-based inference--randomization largely justifies the assumptions underlying statistical effect estimates--but often have limited sample sizes. However, researchers may have access to big observational data on covariates and outcomes from RCT non-participants. For example, data from A/B…

The uncertainty arising from item parameter estimation is often not negligible and must be accounted for when calculating latent variable (LV) scores in item response theory (IRT). It is particularly so when the calibration sample size is limited and/or the calibration IRT model is complex. In the current work, we treat two-stage IRT scoring as a…

The scale-invariant memory, perception, and learning (SIMPLE) model developed by Brown, Neath, and Chater (2007) formalizes the theoretical idea that scale invariance is an important organizing principle across numerous cognitive domains and has made an influential contribution to the literature dealing with modeling human memory. In the context…

Predicting the future is a basic problem that people have to solve every day and a component of planning, decision making, memory, and causal reasoning. In this article, we present 5 experiments testing a Bayesian model of predicting the duration or extent of phenomena from their current state. This Bayesian model indicates how people should…

According to Bayesian theories in psychology and neuroscience, minds and brains are (near) optimal in solving a wide range of tasks. We challenge this view and argue that more traditional, non-Bayesian approaches are more promising. We make 3 main arguments. First, we show that the empirical evidence for Bayesian theories in psychology is weak.…