"Simulation-based inference" is often considered a pedagogical strategy for helping students develop inferential reasoning, for example, giving them a visual and concrete reference for deciding whether the observed statistic is unlikely to happen by chance alone when the null hypothesis is true. In this article, we highlight for teachers…

Background: Rooted in problems of social justice, intersectionality addresses intragroup differences in impacts and outcomes and the compound discrimination at specific intersections of classification (Crenshaw,1991). It stresses that deficits/debts in outcomes often occur non-additively; for example, discriminatory hiring practices can be…

This paper presents a model of recurrent multinomial sequences. Though there exists a quite considerable literature on modeling autocorrelation in numerical data and sequences of categorical outcomes, there is currently no systematic method of modeling patterns of recurrence in categorical sequences. This paper develops a means of discovering…

We provide a novel characterization of augmented balancing weights, also known as automatic debiased machine learning (AutoDML). These popular "doubly robust" or "de-biased machine learning estimators" combine outcome modeling with balancing weights -- weights that achieve covariate balance directly in lieu of estimating and…

Meta-regression analyses usually focus on estimating and testing differences in average effect sizes between individual levels of each meta-regression covariate in turn. These metrics are useful but have limitations: they consider each covariate individually, rather than in combination, and they characterize only the mean of a potentially…

The present work focuses on the performance of two types of shrinkage priors--the horseshoe prior and the recently developed regularized horseshoe prior--in the context of inducing sparsity in path analysis and growth curve models. Prior research has shown that these horseshoe priors induce sparsity by at least as much as the "gold…

Purpose: This article provides a tutorial introduction to ordinal pattern analysis, a statistical analysis method designed to quantify the extent to which hypotheses of relative change across experimental conditions match observed data at the level of individuals. This method may be a useful addition to familiar parametric statistical methods…

We are sometimes forced to use the Interrupted Time Series (ITS) design as an identification strategy for potential policy change, such as when we only have a single treated unit and cannot obtain comparable controls. For example, with recent county- and state-wide criminal justice reform efforts, where judicial bodies have changed bail setting…

Background: Education researchers typically estimate average program effects with regression; if they are interested in heterogeneous effects, they include an interaction in the model. Such models quantify and infer the influences of each covariate on the effect via interaction coefficients and their associated p-values or confidence intervals.…

Estimation of causal effects requires making comparisons across groups of observations exposed and not exposed to a a treatment or cause (intervention, program, drug, etc). To interpret differences between groups causally we need to ensure that they have been constructed in such a way that the comparisons are "fair." This can be…

Takers of educational tests often receive proficiency levels instead of or in addition to scaled scores. For example, proficiency levels are reported for the Advanced Placement (AP®) and U.S. Medical Licensing examinations. Technical difficulties and other unforeseen events occasionally lead to missing item scores and hence to incomplete data on…

A wide range of machine-learning-based approaches have been developed in the past decade, increasing our ability to accurately model nonlinear and nonadditive response surfaces. This has improved performance for inferential tasks such as estimating average treatment effects in situations where standard parametric models may not fit the data well.…

Measurement error affects the quality of population orderings of an index and, hence, increases the misclassification of the poor and the non-poor groups and affects statistical inferences from binary regression models. Hence, the conclusions about the extent, profile, and distribution of poverty are likely to be misleading. However, the size and…

Doubly robust (DR) estimators that combine regression adjustments and inverse probability weighting (IPW) are widely used in causal inference with observational data because they are claimed to be consistent when either the outcome or the treatment selection model is correctly specified (Scharfstein et al., 1999). This property of "double…

Conventional estimators for indirect effects using a difference in coefficients and product of coefficients produce the same results for continuous outcomes. However, for binary outcomes, the difference in coefficient estimator systematically underestimates the indirect effects because of a scaling problem. One solution is to standardize…