Education policy makers must make decisions under uncertainty. Thus, how they think about risks has important implications for resource allocation, interventions, innovation, and the information that is provided to the public. In this policy brief we illustrate how the standard of evidence for making decisions can be quite inconsistently applied,…

A key job of education policymakers is to make decisions under uncertainty. They must weigh the risks, rewards, and costs of different interventions, policies, and mixes of resources, and make decisions even when the likely outcome is uncertain. How policymakers think about and deal with uncertainty has important implications for resource…

In an influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) shows that standard value-added models (VAMs) suggest implausible and large future teacher effects on past student achievement. This is the basis of a falsification test that "appears" to indicate bias in typical VAM estimates of teacher contributions to student learning on standardized…

We investigate the predictive validity of teacher credential test scores for student performance in secondary STEM classrooms in Washington state. After replicating earlier findings that teacher basic skills licensure test scores are a modest and statistically significant predictor of student math test score gains in elementary grades, we focus on…

We find statistically significant relationships between changes in wages by occupation and subsequent changes in college majors completed in associated fields. College majors (defined at a detailed level) are most strongly related to wages observed three years earlier, when students were college freshmen. The responses to wages vary depending on…

With teacher quality repeatedly cited as the most important "schooling" factor influencing student achievement, there has been increased interest in examining the efficacy of teacher training programs. This paper presents the results of research investigating the relationship between teachers who graduate from different training programs…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value-added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

In a provocative and influential paper, Jesse Rothstein (2010) finds that standard value added models (VAMs) suggest implausible future teacher effects on past student achievement, a finding that obviously cannot be viewed as causal. This is the basis of a falsification test (the Rothstein falsification test) that appears to indicate bias in VAM…

We study a popular dual enrollment program in Washington State using a new administrative database linking high school and postsecondary enrollments. Conditional on prior high school performance and basic demographic and economic covariates, dual enrollment students are more likely to attend any college, but they are no more likely to attend…

In this paper we examine the mobility of early-career teachers of varying quality, measured using value-added estimates of teacher performance. Unlike previous studies that have examined these issues, we focus on the variation in these effects across the effectiveness distribution. We find that, on average, more effective teachers tend to stay in…

With teacher quality repeatedly cited as the most important "schooling" factor influencing student achievement, there has been increased interest in examining the efficacy of teacher training programs. This paper presents research examining the variation between and impact that individual teacher training institutions in Washington State…