Binary logistic regression is one of the most widely used statistical tools. The method uses odds, log odds, and odds ratios, which are difficult to understand and interpret. Understanding of logistic regression tends to fall down in one of three ways: (1) Many students and researchers come to believe that an odds ratio translates directly into…

In this literature review, we survey student naïve ideas (frequently referred to as 'misconceptions') that plausibly relate, at least in part, to difficulty in understanding probability. We collected diverse naïve ideas from a range of topics in physics: Non-linear Dynamics; Cosmology; Thermal Physics; Atomic, Nuclear, and Particle Physics;…

When people interpret the outcome of a research study, do they consider other relevant information such as prior research? In the current study, 251 college graduates read a single brief fictitious news article. The article summarized the findings of a study that found positive results for a new drug. Three versions of the article varied the…

Students studying statistics often misunderstand what statistics represent. Some of the most well-known misunderstandings of statistics revolve around null hypothesis significance testing. One pervasive misunderstanding is that the calculated p-value represents the probability that the null hypothesis is true, and that if p < 0.05, there is…

According to the conceptual framework for K-grade 12 statistics education introduced in the 2007 Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) report, students can be located at one of three developmental levels of statistical literacy: A, B, or C. These levels are independent of age and grade level, so, in theory,…

In an informal study, two versions of a story involving probability are introduced to undergraduates. The findings reveal that students have troubles detecting equal probabilities in a sampling scheme without replacement in which no information on earlier draws is available.

This literature-based, classroom-tested novel innovation of educational song (with pedagogical scaffolding) may help engage students explore and address common resistant misconceptions in probability (e.g. all outcomes are equally likely) and in statistics (e.g. correlation must imply either causation or coincidence).

Everyday encounters with graphical representations include a variety of graphs that superficially appear similar due to their use of bars. This article examines students' conceptions and misconceptions regarding the interpretation of variability in histograms, bar graphs, and value bar charts. A multiple choice assessment with brief written…

It is well known that students of inferential statistics find the hypothetical, probabilistic reasoning used in hypothesis tests difficult to understand. Consequently, they will also have difficulties in understanding "p"-values. It is not unusual for these students to hold misconceptions about "p"-values that are difficult to…

As the number of independent tosses of a fair coin grows, the rates of heads and tails tend to equality. This is misinterpreted by many students as being true also for the absolute numbers of the two outcomes, which, conversely, depart unboundedly from each other in the process. Eradicating that misconception, as by coin-tossing experiments,…

Students can struggle to understand and use terms that describe probabilities. Such struggles lead to difficulties comprehending classroom conversations. In this article, we describe some specific misunderstandings a group of students (ages 11-12) held in regard to vocabulary such as "certain", "likely" and…

Research on verbal probabilities has shown that "unlikely" or "improbable" events are believed to correspond to numerical probability values between 10% and 30%. However, building on a pragmatic approach of verbal probabilities and a new methodology, the present paper shows that unlikely outcomes are most often associated with outcomes that have a…

In the author's experience with this activity, students struggle with the idea of representativeness in probability. Therefore, this student misconception is part of the classroom discussion about the activities in this lesson. Representativeness is related to the (incorrect) idea that outcomes that seem more random are more likely to happen. This…

Results from a study of 16 community college students are presented. The research question concerned how students reasoned about p-values. Students' approach to p-values in hypothesis testing was procedural. Students viewed p-values as something that one compares to alpha values in order to arrive at an answer and did not attach much meaning to…

This manuscript discusses the common confusion between the terms probability and odds. To emphasize the importance and responsibility of being meticulous in the dissemination of information and knowledge, this manuscript reveals five cases of sources of inaccurate statistical language imbedded in the dissemination of information to the general…