The uniformly most accurate (UMA) is an important optimal approach in interval estimation, but the current literature often introduces it in a confusing way, rendering the learning, teaching and researching of UMA problematic. Two major aspects cause this confusion. First, UMA is often interpreted to maximize the accuracy of coverage, but in fact,…

This article reports on a study in which third-grade students (8-9 years) were given a degree of agency in conducting chance experiments and representing the outcomes. Students chose their own samples of 12 coloured counters, ensuring all colours were represented. They predicted the outcomes of item selection, tested their predictions, explained…

Probability is a difficult concept, which is not always taught accurately. This study aims to clarify how experimental and theoretical probabilities are taught in Japanese 7th and 8th grades through a textbook analysis. We analyzed seven, government approved Japanese 7th and 8th grade textbooks each. Focusing on the definition and explanation of…

In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I motivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons…

The aim of this study is to explore the judgments and reasoning in probabilistic tasks that require comparing two probabilities either with or without introducing an additional degree of uncertainty. The reasoning associated with the task having an additional condition of uncertainty has not been discussed in previous studies. The 66 undergraduate…

We tested a method for solving Bayesian reasoning problems in terms of spatial relations as opposed to mathematical equations. Participants completed Bayesian problems in which they were given a prior probability and two conditional probabilities and were asked to report the posterior odds. After a pretraining phase in which participants completed…

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a commonly used approach for student modeling, and Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) is a versatile model that can be applied to a wide range of tasks, such as language translation. In this work, we directly compared three models: BKT, its variant Intervention-BKT (IBKT), and LSTM, on two types of student modeling…

Research-based guidelines for learning variation exist (e.g., Franklin et al., 2007; Garfield, delMas, & Chance, 2007), but little is known about how teachers plan to teach standard deviation, or how these plans align with recent recommendations. In this article, we survey lesson plans designed by inservice and preservice secondary…

This study presents an efficient approach to personalized mispronunciation detection of Taiwanese-accented English. The main goal of this study was to detect frequently occurring mispronunciation patterns of Taiwanese-accented English instead of scoring English pronunciations directly. The proposed approach quickly identifies personalized…