The predictive analysis approach to adaptive testing originated in the idea of statistical predictive analysis suggested by J. Aitchison and I.R. Dunsmore (1975). The adaptive testing model proposed is based on parameter-free predictive distribution. Aitchison and Dunsmore define statistical prediction analysis as the use of data obtained from an…

The relationship between selected subtests from the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) and corresponding subtests administered as computerized adaptive tests (CAT) was investigated using a sample of Marine recruits. Results showed that the CAT subtest scores correlated as well with initial ASVAB scores as did ASVAB retest scores,…

A nominal response model-based computerized adaptive testing procedure (nominal CAT) was implemented using simulated data. Ability estimates from the nominal CAT were compared to those from a CAT based upon the three-parameter logistic model (3PL CAT). Furthermore, estimates from both CAT procedures were compared with the known true abilities used…

Hierarchical (adaptive) and linear methods of testlet construction were compared. The performance of 2,080 ninth and tenth graders on a 4-item testlet was used to predict performance on the entire test. The adaptive test was slightly superior as a predictor, but the cost of obtaining that superiority was considerable. (SLD)

A predictive adaptive testing (PAT) strategy was developed based on statistical predictive analysis, and its feasibility was studied by comparing PAT performance to those of the Flexilevel, Bayesian modal, and expected a posteriori (EAP) strategies in a simulated environment. The proposed adaptive test is based on the idea of using item difficulty…