Because of lower-than-expected current year public school enrollments, the Department of Education and the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research have revised downward the projections of public school enrollments and high school graduates. The new high school standard diploma projection is lower by 7,000 graduates annually, or…

Projections are presented of what will happen if current trends in enrollments in New Jersey continue and current policies are maintained. Enrollments are projected to 1990 for full-time and part-time students in three collegiate sectors. The projective methodology is a ratio technique that minimizes data requirements and eliminates the need for…

Projections of key education statistics are provided for a 5-year period to 1993, for public elementary and secondary schools at the state level. The report is designed to provide state-level projections developed with a consistent methodology based on: several statistical models of persistence in education; data from the National Center for…

The purpose of this paper is to forecast the number of Hispanic students who will enroll in the Houston Independent School District (HISD) in grades K through 6 in the next five years and to forecast the number of Limited-English-Speaking Ability (LESA) students who will need appropriate educational services. These forecasts are made utilizing…

Three demographically-based enrollment projections are analyzed in this paper. The first set of projections was prepared by the National Center of Education Statistics (NCES), the second set was estimated by the Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, and the third set is the work of Allan Cartter. NCES projections cover the…

Older students (those beyond the age of 24) represented nearly 40 percent of all college and university enrollment in 1988, compared with 33 percent in 1974. Two sets of projections are suggested to show that, by 1995, the share of older students may increase somewhat, but students in the "traditional" age range (less than 25 years old) will still…

Shifts in college enrollments until 1985 are discussed and attributed to a number of factors, among them: differences between states, birthrate changes, and between-state migration. Only students of traditional college age are considered. Enrollment trends are charted, and statistical data for each state appear in tabular form. (MSE)

The history of the growth of college enrollment in Maryland over the last twenty years has been marked by unprecedented increases in numbers of students, particularly in the 1960's, but the end of that period of rapid growth is approaching. This report highlights the past growth of higher education in Maryland, points out significant factors in…

This study examined whether the use of trend analysis combined with analysis of persistence variables can be used to establish a model to forecast the first-year persistence of college freshmen. A linear model was created using data on 2,603 first-time freshmen at a moderate-sized comprehensive university from fall 1989 through fall 1993. The…

In the first chapter, the main approaches to educational planning as practiced in the member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development are described: (1) social demand, which subsumes current and supplementary demand; (2) investment in education; and (3) manpower needs. This chapter also reviews the contemporary use of…

A study was conducted by the Virginia Community College System (VCCS) to determine VCCS first-time enrollment projections for recent high school graduates in the face of estimated decreases in the number of high school graduates from 1980 through 1985. The projections were determined by an analysis of Virginia Department of Education graduation…

Total higher education enrollment in fall 1989 is projected at 13.1 million, nearly 2% over the previous year. Full-time enrollment is expected to remain around 7.4 million, with part-time enrollment increasing from 5.5 million in 1988 to 5.7 million in 1989. Enrollment at public institutions will rise from 10.0 million in 1988 to 10.2 million in…

To reduce problems in comparing gains in the rate of students who progress to the next level of education, a nonlinear transformation is recommended. Two such transformations, probits and logits, are presented. Log linear models are recommended for an appropriate statistical test of sampling error. (Author/GDC)

This four-section report prepared by the Washington State Office of Financial Management examines the 1983-85 biennium budget forecasts for public common schools, total population and student movement in relation to economic cycles (over the past 2 decades), trends in public and private school enrollment (over the past 2 decades), and school…

Predicted enrollment growth at four-year colleges in some states has not occurred. Trends complicating projection include increase in high school students taking college courses and progressing quickly; community college demand among older students; federal aid and tax changes; growth of distance learning; state and federal welfare program…