Kahneman and Tversky's critique of Cohen's position on adults' probability reasoning is not valid. If they think Baconian logic is normatively unsound, the onus is on them to explain why. It is valid and useful because nature itself is full of causal processes. (Author/RD)

Brennan's B statistic is a generalized upper-lower discrimination index which was first published in 1972: Peirce earlier introduced a statistic on the relation between a predictor and an outcome which has the same structure as Brennan's B. (Author/CP)

Six-year-olds, 10-year-olds, and 18-year-olds were studied in a probability learning experiment using a procedure analagous to that used in animal experiments. It was predicted that children, like rats, would choose higher probability alternatives more often with a noncorrection than a correction reinforcement procedure. (Author/DB)

The discrepancies in the power of voters in the various states is examined by computing the probability that an individual vote will be critical in an election. (MP)

Discussion of text compression focuses on a method to reduce the amount of storage needed to represent a Markov model with an extended alphabet, by applying a clustering scheme that brings together similar states. Highlights include probability vectors; algorithms; implementation details; and experimental data with natural languages. (Author/LRW)

Three counterexamples demonstrate that the Dutch Identity conjecture of P. Holland about examinee ability (1990) does not hold in general. The counterexamples suggest that only under strong assumptions can it be true that the limits of log-manifest probabilities are quadratic. Three propositions giving such strong conditions are given. (Author/SLD)

This paper presents two probabilistic models based on the logistic and the normal distribution for the analysis of dependencies in individual paired comparison judgments such as might occur in educational research. Three applications illustrate the approach. (SLD)

A Bayesian approach to the testing of competing covariance structures is developed. Approximate posterior probabilities are easily obtained from the chi square values and other known constants. The approach is illustrated using an example that demonstrates how the prior probabilities can alter results concerning the preferred model specification.…

Minkowski distances are used to indicate similarity of two vectors in an N-dimensional space. How to compute the probability function, the expectation, and the variance for Minkowski distances and the special cases City-block distance and Euclidean distance. Critical values for tests of significance are presented in tables. (SLD)

Applies elementary concepts of probability to a hotly debated question in football. Shows that the probability of winning is the same either way but the probability of losing is greater under the one-first strategy. (MKR)

Surveys of (n=200 in 5 schools) secondary school students' preconceptions of probability found that, although these students had had no formal instruction in probability, they did have some notion of the topic. Includes survey. (Author/MKR)

This paper demonstrates that two major tests for two-by-two tables, Fisher's exact and Pearson's chi-square tests, are highly related from a Bayesian perspective. A formal similarity is demonstrated in small samples, and reasons for the relationship are discussed. (SLD)