This report on forces influencing the future is designed to define the challenges that lie ahead and to help individuals develop plans to meet these challenges. It is based on the work of a team of "environmental scanners" who reviewed media, books, and academic research and discussed current issues with a variety of people to explore forces at…

In a study examining the effectiveness of story-impressions (a previewing strategy) on story comprehension, remedial eighth grade students were asked to write predictions or "story-guesses" based on a series of one-word clues (story-impressions) that had been extracted from the material to be read. Having written a logical…

This manual describes and illustrates ED QUEST (Quick Environmental Scanning Technique), an educational planning model designed to identify emerging issues and events which portend threats and opportunities to colleges and universities, to analyze the probable impact of these variables on the organization, and to facilitate the development of…

Robert M. W. Travers's 1980 essay is the focal point of this paper. He argues that evaluation research requires a scientific taxonomy of human behavior and learning. Such a taxonomy must be experimentally based, mathematically expressed, theoretically sound, and predictive. He bases such criteria on the development of scientifically successful…

This learning unit on using graphs is one in the Choice Series, a self-learning development program for supervisors. Purpose stated for the approximately eight-hour-long unit is to enable the supervisor to look at the usefulness of graphs in displaying figures, use graphs to compare sets of figures, identify trends and seasonal variations in…

A media attribute approach was used in a study which hypothesized that compositional syntactic placement may bridge the processing link between the learner's cognitive capacity and the demands of a simple concept attainment task. Compositional syntactic placement refers to the relative horizontal position of the primary symbol or object within a…

A plan to establish an environmental scanning and forecasting system for colleges and universities is discussed as a way to maximize long-range planning. After proposing a program structure, attention is directed to methods of gaining organizational acceptance, developing a comprehensive taxonomy with an electronic filing system, identifying and…

The efficiency of the butterfly catastrophe model for describing and predicting performance changes in an educational setting was studied. Subjects were 455 introductory psychology students. Changes in performance on the first exam and three subsequent exams were examined, plus extra credit for participation in psychology experiments. The…

Experiences of the University of Miami's institutional research office, which produces three annual 5-year strategic plans, are reported. Attention is directed to official and unofficial functions of the institutional research office, lessons learned in the process, and suggestions for ways to minimize frustration and maximize usefulness.…

Economic long wave research is reviewed and related to major transitions facing higher education. The focus is on economic forecasting as one type of environmental scanning. The Russian economist Kondratieff produced statistical evidence of a long economic wave. The Kondratieff wave appears to be a 45- to 60-year cycle of upswings and downswings…

This speech discusses the national emerging trend toward state intervention in local educational processes as part of the academic accountability movement. It provides examples of reforms and improvements whereby state intervention furnished local school improvement. The address focuses on state intervention in Jersey City, New Jersey; predicts…

In 1981, a study was conducted at three rural community colleges in Maryland to determine whether there was a difference between the college grade point averages (GPAs) of first-time, full-time students who applied early for admissions and the GPAs of students who applied late. The study analyzed applications and GPA data for a total of 700…

Grades awarded to secondary school students in the Cleveland (Ohio) public schools were analyzed to determine relationships between grades and selected school climate variables in a desegregated urban school district. Failures or F grades and schoolwide non-promotion rates were both related to rates of class attendance and school suspensions. Over…

The report describes three advanced technologies--robotics, artificial intelligence, and computer simulation--and identifies the ways in which they might contribute to special education. A hybrid methodology was employed to identify existing technology and forecast future needs. Following this framework, each of the technologies is defined,…

Dangers are inherent in predicting the future. In discussing the future of computers, specifically, it is useful to consider the brief history of computers from the development of ENIAC to microcomputers. Advances in computer technology can be seen by looking at changes in individual components, including internal and external memory, the…