There are no data in this research report that would support the generalization that educational administration will face a doctorate glut during the 1970's or 1980's. There is far more reason to be worried about a glut in the number of institutions producing doctorates in educational administration than about a glut in the number of doctorates…

This is the second report of the Northern California Cooperative Research Project (NORCAL) on student attrition. Part I summarizes the findings of the initial NORCAL report on attrition characteristics (see ED 031 240) and compares them with other community college samples. It also discusses the validation of a predictive model for identifying…

The suppressor variable, a variable wholly uncorrelated with a criterion, but which nevertheless improves prediction because of its relationship with a predictor, is critically examined. For a suppressor so defined, formal identities are shown with part, partial, and multiple correlational procedures. It is demonstrated that if maximum prediction…

This study was an attempt to apply certain concepts from social learning theory to the understanding of certain factors related to eighth-grade girls. Subjects were thought to vary in degree of identification with parents, teachers, and peers and to attribute different academic achievement values to these figures. Subjects (267) came from a…

This study attempted to determine whether counselor effectiveness designated by a high level of performance in a first counseling practicum as ranked by faculty supervisors, can be predicted with a knowledge of the extent to which the individual possesses the personal qualities of open-mindedness, tolerance for ambiguity, general mental health,…

We are now at a stage in human global development in which the continuous review and assessment of the long-range future implications of our past and present actions becomes crucially important for the survival of human society. This report includes a synoptic view of world trends and alternative futures. The first and major portion of the…

The forecast reported here surveys expected utilization levels, organizational structures, and values concerning technology in education in 1990. The focus is upon educational technology and forecasting methodology; televised instruction, computer-assisted instruction (CAI), and information services are considered. The methodology employed…

The 1966 Invitational Conference on Testing Problems dealt with the innovations of the new age of flexibility and the problems of evaluating and preparing for them. Papers presented in Session I, Innovation and Evaluation, were: (1) "Innovation and Evaluation: In Whose Hands?" by Nils Y. Wessell; (2) "The Discovery and Development of Educational…

The effectiveness of the Delphi Technique is evaluated in terms of immediate and delayed controlled information feedback (feedback within 5 seconds as compared with a 24-hour delay); and the relationships that exist among measures of integrative complexity, estimations about the time of occurrence of future events, and time delay between task…

A study was conducted to assess the effectiveness of oral language responses as predictors of the reading performance of intermediate-grade students. Responses were considered to be paradigmatic if they illustrated superordinate, coordinate, contrast, or part-whole relationships. Other responses were considered syntagmatic. Subjects were 52 fourth…

As one of a series of reports in progress, this report is introduced with a discussion of the concepts underlying long-range planning of any kind, and the methods of research used to describe alternative patterns of evolution or change within various policy fields. The FAR method, which emerged out of the Contingent U.S. Patterns (CUSPs) analysis…

This bibliography of materials relevant to educational policymaking is confined to trends, forecasts, and proposals -- i.e., documents on changes that are taking place, on future states of affairs, and on recommended changes. The material is organized into seven sections: (1) general, (2) elementary and secondary, (3) higher education, (4) other…

This study of predictive validities of Academic Interest Measures (AIM) is based on a follow-up through Grade 12 and one year after high school graduation, of students tested in Grade 11. Major topics considered are: prediction of both marks and interests in Grades 12 and 13, emphasizing differential prediction; structure of abilities, interests…

This report describes the development of a teacher cost model for the Ontario secondary school system that allows educational officials, using a specified set of input information, to forecast the provincial wage-bill for a period of up to five years. The model is composed of two sub-models -- the teacher manpower sub-model and the teacher salary…

Arguments which suggest that improved prediction of multiple criteria can be achieved employing pattern scoring of responses, as opposed to conventional methods, are examined. Models for improving prediction of single and multiple criteria were examined. The findings are: (1) simple linear combinations of predictor variables perform as well…