The dynamic linear model or Kalman filtering model provides a useful methodology for predicting the past, present, and future states of a dynamic system, such as an object in motion or an economic or social indicator that is changing systematically with time. Recursive likelihood methods for adaptive Kalman filtering and smoothing are developed.…

Many social policies rely on assessments of violence potential in their implementation. Decisions concerning such civil matters as involuntary institutionalization and level of institutional custody, and criminal matters such as type or length of sentence and the granting of bail often rely on estimates of the potential that an individual will be…

This bulletin focuses on the views of four authors. The first, Daniel R. Davies, describes the rise and fall of local control and local school board policies and predicts how the vacuum will be filled. Specifically, he analyzes the concomitant waning of local control and school board policymaking power and forecasts stages in the transition from…

Some of the conceptual qualitative ideas needed to test nonlinear models empirically and to modify them are described. Relationships among these ideas and computer applications are also examined to elucidate the general process of nonlinear modeling. Two examples are presented along with a discussion of bifurcation, catastrophe, and maximum…

Possible futures for the world of mainframe computers can be forecast through studies identifying forces of change and their impact on current trends. Some new prospects for the future have been generated by advances in information technology; for example, recent United States successes in applied artificial intelligence (AI) have created new…

The study examined predictions concerning the future of special education as voiced by special education administrators, special education teachers, and members of advocacy organizations for the handicapped. A Delphi survey composed of four rounds was used to elicit responses from participants and to obtain a consensus of opinion within each…

This study employed a multiple regression to predict examinees' differential performance when tested by familiar and unfamiliar examiners. Subjects were 32 preschool and school-age handicapped children, each of whom had been tested on the Clinical Evaluation of Language Functions, once by a familiar and once by an unfamiliar tester, within a…

The study examined the relationship between the family environment of 124 hearing impaired children (9-13 years old) and academic achievement. Interviews focused on what parents do with their children, how they interact (the social-psychological family environment) as well as status characteristics in relation to their children's academic…

This paper draws from several disciplines to provide a foundation for making progress toward a unified conception of thinking in science education. Areas covered include: (1) the philosophy of science (discussing contextual realism); (2) cognitive psychology (describing development of scientific thinking skills); and (3) artificial intelligence…

The study followed up 30 premature Hungarian infants of low birthweight (less than 2500 grams) but no other major perinatal complications. Subjects were tested at age 6 on the Budapest-Binet IQ test, the Goodenough's "Draw a Person" test, the Bender Gestalt test, and a school entry test battery. Test performances at age 6 found that the…

Admissions practices at the North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics, a residential high school for gifted students, were examined. Data from students applying in 1983 and 1984 (over 800 per year) were available, as were grades of students admitted in 1983. A series of multiple regression studies showed that selection and first year grades…

The role of depression as related to symptoms of social behavior, teacher ratings of behavior and intellectual ability was examined for 58 children (7-14 years old) with learning disabilities. Subjects were administered the Children's Depression Inventory, and those (N=16) scoring one standard deviation below the mean were designated nondepressed,…

A study explored the effects of prequestions (questions provided prior to reading) and the influence of a prediction strategy upon the amount and types of information recalled by children in grades three through six. Subjects, 188 students in grades three through six who were reading at third grade level or above, read a 900-word expository…

Researchers are now attempting to improve techniques for studying stable behavior patterns in family systems over long periods of time, e.g., the marital dyad across several levels of function and dysfunction covering time periods of months to years. One approach to improving this research design is based on the assumptions that longitudinal…

In recent years, rural sociology has been the subject of sociological inquiries. Many of these have been highly critical, raising questions about the ontological nature of the discipline. This paper extends the tradition, providing a brief historical analysis of rural sociology's roots as both theoretical and applied and critiquing current rural…