A Bayes estimation procedure for Rasch-type model estimation that has statistical and computational advantages over existing methods is described. It involves constructing posterior distributions based on sample data and artificial data reflecting prior information. Its use for some Rasch-type cases, and how it can improve parameter estimation are…

Extends the basic Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) strategy of R. Patz and B. Junker (1999) for Bayesian inference in complex Item Response Theory settings to address issues such as nonresponse, designed missingness, multiple raters, guessing behaviors, and partial credit (polytomous) test items. Applies the MCMC method to data from the National…

A linear latent growth curve mixture model is presented which includes switching between growth curves. Switching is accommodated by means of a Markov transition model. The model is formulated with switching as a highly constrained multivariate mixture model and is fitted using the freely available Mx program. The model is illustrated by analyzing…

The authors describe 3 human spatial navigation experiments that investigate how limitations of perception, memory, uncertainty, and decision strategy affect human spatial navigation performance. To better understand the effect of these variables on human navigation performance, the authors developed an ideal-navigator model for indoor navigation…

The purpose of this ITEMS module is to provide an introduction to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation for item response models. A brief description of Bayesian inference is followed by an overview of the various facets of MCMC algorithms, including discussion of prior specification, sampling procedures, and methods for evaluating chain…

This paper proposes a multimedia English learning (MEL) system, based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and mastery theory strategy, for teaching students with the aim of enhancing their English phonetic awareness and pronunciation. It can analyze phonetic structures, identify and capture pronunciation errors to provide students with targeted advice…

Over the course of instruction, instructors generally collect a great deal of information about each student. Integrating that information intelligently requires models for how a student's proficiency changes over time. Armed with such models, instructors can "filter" the data--more accurately estimate the student's current proficiency…

The Programme for International Student Assessment comparative study of reading performance among 15-year-olds is reanalyzed using statistical procedures that allow the full complexity of the data structures to be explored. The article extends existing multilevel factor analysis and structural equation models and shows how this can extract richer…

In order to obtain conditional maximum likelihood estimates, the so-called conditioning estimates have to be calculated. In this paper a method is examined that does not calculate these constants exactly, but approximates them using Monte Carlo Markov Chains. As an example, the method is applied to the conditional estimation of both item and…

The accuracy of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure Gibbs sampling was considered for estimation of item parameters of the two-parameter logistic model. Data for the Law School Admission Test (LSAT) Section 6 were analyzed to illustrate the MCMC procedure. In addition, simulated data sets were analyzed using the MCMC, marginal Bayesian…

A Bayesian procedure to estimate the three-parameter normal ogive model and a generalization to a model with multidimensional ability parameters are discussed. The procedure is a generalization of a procedure by J. Albert (1992) for estimating the two-parameter normal ogive model. The procedure will support multiple samples from multiple…

An active area in psychometric research is coordinated task design and statistical analysis built around cognitive models. Compared with classical test theory and item response theory, there is often less information from observed data about the measurement-model parameters. On the other hand, there is more information from the grounding…

This paper aims to describe a Bayesian approach to modeling and estimating cognitive models both in terms of statistical machinery and actual instrument development. Such a method taps the knowledge of experts to provide initial estimates for the probabilistic relationships among the variables in a multivariate latent variable model and refines…

How to measure growth in knowledge and ability over time in curriculum research is explored. Two broad classes of probabilistic models are considered, the Rasch model and latent class models with their associated generalizations. Potential of both classes for measuring categorical change is discussed. (SLD)

Presents a latent Markov model in which the latent states are regressed on time-constant and time-varying covariates by means of a system-logit model. In an illustration, 541 secondary-school students' interest in physics at different times is explained by the time-constant covariate sex and the time-varying covariate physics grade. (SLD)