ERIC Number: ED676540
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2025-Apr
Pages: N/A
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: 0000-00-00
Option Value Neglect: Evidence from Centralized College Admission. Working Paper 33704
Ao Wang; Shaoda Wang; Xiaoyang Ye
National Bureau of Economic Research
Sequential choices are ubiquitous in daily life, yet making optimal decisions in such settings--where properly accounting for option value is crucial--can be challenging. This paper provides field experimental evidence on the neglect of option value in high-stakes decisions and quantifies the associated welfare consequences. We study a centralized college admissions system where students submit brief preference lists. Although option value should encourage riskier top choices, many students are overly cautious and fail to include safer lower-ranked options. We argue that directed cognition--making myopic decisions while ignoring the value of subsequent options--explains this behavior. An in-field experiment targeting a key framing-based prediction shows that about 50% of applicants exhibit this pattern, especially among disadvantaged students. Counterfactual analysis suggests that de-biasing interventions could significantly reduce outcome gaps and improve overall efficiency. [Financial support for this report was received from J-PAL, CEGA, and BFI.]
Descriptors: Decision Making, College Admission, Preferences, Student Behavior, College Applicants, College Choice
National Bureau of Economic Research. 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138-5398. Tel: 617-588-0343; Web site: http://www.nber.org
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A

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