Use of dual-processing has been widely touted as a strategy to reduce diagnostic error in clinical medicine. However, this strategy has not been tested among medical trainees with complex diagnostic problems. We sought to determine whether dual-processing instruction could reduce diagnostic error across a spectrum of experience with trainees…

As a result of the use of random assignment to treatment, randomized experiments typically have high internal validity. However, units are very rarely randomly selected from a well-defined population of interest into an experiment; this results in low external validity. Under nonrandom sampling, this means that the estimate of the sample average…

Background: The equiprobability bias is a tendency for individuals to think of probabilistic events as "equiprobable" by nature, and to judge outcomes that occur with different probabilities as equally likely. The equiprobability bias has been repeatedly found to be related to formal education in statistics, and it is claimed to be based…

Stage theories are prominent and controversial in science. One possible reason for their appeal is that they provide order and predictability. Participants in Experiment 1 rated stage theories as more orderly and predictable (but less credible) than continuum theories. In Experiments 2-5, we showed that order threats increase the appeal of stage…

Students frequently encounter stories in the form of urban legends but often fail to analyze them properly. Using urban legends to teach is often a lively and informative method, and deconstructing common persuasive messages can show students the applicability of theory to real life. The author states that her goal as a teacher is to help students…

We quantified the effect of first experience on behavior in operant learning and studied its underlying computational principles. To that goal, we analyzed more than 200,000 choices in a repeated-choice experiment. We found that the outcome of the first experience has a substantial and lasting effect on participants' subsequent behavior, which we…

We present a proposal--"The Sampling Hypothesis"--suggesting that the variability in young children's responses may be part of a rational strategy for inductive inference. In particular, we argue that young learners may be randomly sampling from the set of possible hypotheses that explain the observed data, producing different hypotheses with…

We describe a case study that was created to intertwine the fields of biology and mathematics. This project is given in an elementary probability and statistics course for non-math majors. Some goals of this case study include: to expose students to biology in a math course, to apply probability to real-life situations, and to display how far a…

We live in an era of information overload. From online news to online shopping to scholarly research, we are inundated with a torrent of information on a daily basis. With our limited time, money and attention, we often struggle to extract actionable knowledge from this deluge of data. A common approach for addressing this challenge is…

Propensity score analysis has been used to minimize the selection bias in observational studies to identify causal relationships. A propensity score is an estimate of an individual's probability of being placed in a treatment group given a set of covariates. Propensity score analysis aims to use the estimate to create balanced groups, akin to a…

Rationale: Research examining the relationship between initial community college enrollment and bachelor's completion have shown mixed results with some studies indicating a clear penalty for community college enrollment and other studies showing no penalty, partly due to the point at which the given study began tracking the community college…

This paper is based on research that investigated the development of probabilistic language and thinking by students 10-12 years old. The focus was on the adequate use of probabilistic terms in social practice. A series of tasks was developed for the investigation and completed by the students working in groups. The discussions were video recorded…

The Traveling Salesperson Problem (TSP) is a computationally difficult combinatorial optimization problem. In spite of its relative difficulty, human solvers are able to generate close-to-optimal solutions in a close-to-linear time frame, and it has been suggested that this is due to the visual system's inherent sensitivity to certain geometric…

Conventional differential item functioning (DIF) detection methods (e.g., the Mantel-Haenszel test) can be used to detect DIF only across observed groups, such as gender or ethnicity. However, research has found that DIF is not typically fully explained by an observed variable. True sources of DIF may include unobserved, latent variables, such as…

The ability to adjust bias, or preference for an option, allows for great behavioral flexibility. Decision bias is also important for understanding cognition as it can provide useful information about underlying cognitive processes. Previous work suggests that bias can be adjusted in 2 primary ways: by adjusting how the stimulus under…