Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather…

The present study examined the use of statistical cues for word boundaries during Chinese reading. Participants were instructed to read sentences for comprehension with their eye movements being recorded. A two-character target word was embedded in each sentence. The contrast between the probabilities of the ending character (C2) of the target…

Child maltreatment is a major social problem. This paper focuses on measuring the relationship between child maltreatment and crime using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). We focus on crime because it is one of the most costly potential outcomes of maltreatment. Our work addresses two main limitations of…

We propose a new version of the "theory theory" grounded in the computational framework of probabilistic causal models and Bayesian learning. Probabilistic models allow a constructivist but rigorous and detailed approach to cognitive development. They also explain the learning of both more specific causal hypotheses and more abstract framework…

The function of consciousness was explored in two contexts of audio-visual speech, cross-modal visual attention guidance and McGurk cross-modal integration. Experiments 1, 2, and 3 utilized a novel cueing paradigm in which two different flash suppressed lip-streams cooccured with speech sounds matching one of these streams. A visual target was…

One motivation for trying recreational drugs is the desire for novel experiences. More intelligent people tend to value novelty more highly and may therefore be more likely to have tried recreational drugs. Using data from a national survey, it is shown that intelligence tends to be positively related to the probabilities of having tried alcohol,…

This article advocates biased spinners as an engaging context for statistics students. Calculating the probability of a biased spinner landing on a particular side makes valuable connections between probability and other areas of mathematics. (Contains 2 figures and 1 table.)

This article deals with a brief biographical sketch of Joseph Fourier, his first celebrated work on analytical theory of heat, his first great discovery of Fourier series and Fourier transforms. Included is a historical development of Fourier series and Fourier transforms with their properties, importance and applications. Special emphasis is made…

This classroom note illustrates how dynamic visualization can be used to teach conditional probability and Bayes' theorem. There are two features of the visualization that make it an ideal pedagogical tool in probability instruction. The first feature is the use of area-proportional Venn diagrams that, along with showing qualitative relationships,…

The objective of this study was to investigate if an e-learning environment may use measurements of the user's current motivation to adapt the level of task difficulty for more effective learning. In the reported study, motivation-based adaptation was applied randomly to collect a wide range of data for different adaptations in a variety of…

This study examines the community-wide effects of investments in two early childhood initiatives in North Carolina (Smart Start and More at Four) on the likelihood of a student being placed into special education. We take advantage of variation across North Carolina counties and years in the timing of the introduction and funding levels of the two…

Researchers use many different metrics for evaluation of performance of student models. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of commonly used metrics, to discuss properties, advantages, and disadvantages of different metrics, to summarize current practice in educational data mining, and to provide guidance for evaluation of student…

Students' understanding of probability concepts have been investigated from various different perspectives. This study was set out to investigate perceived understanding of probability concepts of forty-four students from the STAT131 Understanding Uncertainty and Variation course at the University of Wollongong, NSW. Rasch measurement which is…

This undergraduate physical chemistry laboratory exercise introduces students to the study of probability distributions both experimentally and using computer simulations. Students perform the classic coin toss experiment individually and then pool all of their data together to study the effect of experimental sample size on the binomial…

In this study, we use detailed survey and institutional data from a prospective panel study of students attending a highly selective, private university to examine the effects of fraternity or sorority membership on a range of collegiate outcomes. Previous research has given insufficient attention to selection issues inherent in the study of…